Nuclear Risk 2024 + noise: How many of the 11 linked markets resolve Yes?
12
1.4kṀ5497
resolved Jan 21
Resolved
NO
>= 11
Resolved
NO
>= 9
Resolved
NO
>= 7
Resolved
NO
>= 5
Resolved
NO
>= 4
Resolved
NO
>= 3
Resolved
NO
>= 2
Resolved
NO
>= 1

How many of the following markets will resolve Yes?

/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-b81a727f8cd4

/EvanDaniel/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6cba7b4a2e34

/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren

/EvanDaniel/will-a-nuclear-missile-be-successfu

/EvanDaniel/will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-bbd6762bfb35

/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-an-accidental-nuclear

/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta

/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the

/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

/ZviMowshowitz/what-is-the-risk-free-interest-rate

/Predictor/will-a-galactic-federation-reveal-i

This is an attempt to provide a close mirror to /EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8-1d6566217a38 . However, it also adds a couple other questions highly likely (in my opinion) to resolve No, that are not trading at exactly zero. Hopefully differences in pricing between these two can provide a quantitative estimate for noise in prices and interest rates.

See also the linked version of the original:

/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8

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Why is there no zero option?

@AlexBokov It would resolve yes if it were there, so there’s no point.

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