8
104
1.5k
2025
87%
0
9%
1
2%
2
0.7%
3
0.5%
4-5
0.4%
6-8
0.4%
9-12
0.3%
13-16

This is a derivative market. It will resolve exactly according to the number of the linked markets that resolve Yes.

/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-b81a727f8cd4

/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca-1f2e9a9515f4

/EvanDaniel/will-a-nuclear-weapon-cause-over-10-5cce410c931a

/EvanDaniel/will-nuclear-weapons-cause-over-100

/EvanDaniel/which-countries-will-detonate-a-nuc

The first question includes tests; it is not solely about wars. Hopefully it is a useful inclusion for arbitrage and overall risk level evaluation.

The second question (at least 1 fatality) includes the remainder of 2023, unlike the other questions. (Making the time frames agree exactly did not feel critical enough to be worth creating an additional question.)

The last question (which countries) is an unlinked multiple choice market; each of the 12 sub-questions is counted separately for this market, bringing the total number of questions and sub-questions counted to 16 for this market.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

More related questions