Devansh's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -10.49
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Devansh bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ1,000
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ1,000
- Will I get a positive response back from Atlas Fellowship?NOṀ250
97%
99%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ1,000
- Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th District?NOṀ500
- 6. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?YESṀ20