We will count Tether as “de-pegged” if it spends at least one full day below 98 cents at any point during 2023.
This is question #36 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This market seems way too ambivalent. If tether didn't come close to depegging (as per this definition) with the collapse of Terra/Luna or FTX, I don't think even the fall of Binance could bring it down. I'm curious to hear the rationale from those buying Yes.