We will count Tether as “de-pegged” if it spends at least one full day below 98 cents at any point during 2023.
This is question #36 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Sort by:
Jon Simon
This market seems way too ambivalent. If tether didn't come close to depegging (as per this definition) with the collapse of Terra/Luna or FTX, I don't think even the fall of Binance could bring it down. I'm curious to hear the rationale from those buying Yes.
YES shares
1,169
671
433
314
294
269
153
146
126
111
110
86
85
71
59
NO shares
2,698
768
610
291
250
159
135
114
65
62
56
55
