Will 'Effective Altruism' reach 50% of previous US Google Trends peak in 2023?
resolved Dec 5

November 13th to 19th is the previous peak.

To resolve I will look at https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Effective%20Altruism&hl=en and check if the line after Nov 19 ever seems to hit or surpass 50.

ETA 19 Nov 2023: I will actually change the time horizon of the linked chart to include the Nov 2022 peak.

Graph on Mar 10:

Mar 10, 1:07pm: Will 'Effective Altruism' reach 50% of previous Google Trends peak in 2023? → Will 'Effective Altruism' reach 50% of previous US Google Trends peak in 2023?

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predicted YES

can resolve yes

bought Ṁ123 of YES

My simple math: Pre-Sama-drama, interest was at about 11/100 compared to the peak. From the weekly CSV file it seems that average interest went up about 6.5x since the firing. Current interest should therefore be around 70/100. So good chance it shows as >=50 once its finalized.
Does anybody have a different estimate?

predicted NO


bought Ṁ150 of NO

If you’re looking at the past 12 months, Nov 13-19th will not be in scope, and therefore the chart will be renormalized so “50” is a lower bar. How will you account for that? Looking at past 5 years?

predicted NO

@DanMan314 Good catch—I will look at the longer time horizon graph.

sold Ṁ10 of YES

@KatjaGrace [no longer endorse] I bet on the original resolution criteria. Might have been better to start a new market with new resolution criteria?

predicted NO

@TobiasH as in you foresaw that the start date would be out of range and the graph would recalibrate so that '50' didn't correspond to 50% of the previous peak (per the title) and then you bet on that? Surely you didn't think that's what I intended, or I would have titled it differently?

@KatjaGrace Yeah, I was confused and interpreted the title as "previous peak in 2023". My mistake, sorry!

predicted NO

@TobiasH Ah that makes sense, sorry for ambiguity.

bought Ṁ200 of YES