Will I get a 5 on two AP exams this year?
11
23
Ṁ406
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
YES
Results come out in July. I'm taking 3 AP tests—AP Human Geography, AP Biology, and AP World History this year. I'm highly confident that I'll get a 5 on the AP Human Geo test, but Bio and World are substantially more on the edge. On practice tests, I've gotten (extremely close) 5s on both Bio and World, but I assign a decent probability to getting 4s on both. May 10, 7:20pm: At least two - if all three tests are 5s, this market resolves YES.
Get Ṁ200 play money

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sold Ṁ50 of YES
hedging
bought Ṁ3 of NO
Updated to 90%, but this market was overvalued, so let's make some expected profit :P
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Good luck devansh!!
bought Ṁ10 of NO
The AP bio test... was not ideal. 75% seems about right.
bought Ṁ50 of YES
I know you personally, and I'm confident. I know how hard those exams are and how well I did on those or similar exams, and I personally think you're much smarter than I was at that age, so I'm even more than 97% confident on that one.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
After taking a bio practice test, I feel more confident.
Exactly 2 or at least 2?
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Bio and World were objectively trivial when I took them; the only thing one had to fear for the latter were the counterintuitive essay requirements. The average person here seems high IQ, so I am betting yes.

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