Will anyone lose at least M$1,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
Manifold
64
168
Ṁ1.2K
resolved Apr 30
Resolved
YES

I shamelessly take inspiration from this market by @IsaacKing

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100-56baa429a7a9

This is not the exact opposite, as both can resolve YES together (even with a single market) and also not identical.

I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "lose" by M$1,000,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.

Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ395
2Ṁ307
3Ṁ168
4Ṁ107
5Ṁ75
15 Comments
49 Holders
144 Trades
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bought Ṁ20,000 of YES

Resolves Yes

Why this is not 100% after Isaac lose 5 million is difficult for me to understand currently

bought Ṁ55 of YES

@Messi Manifold's trader's behaviour is difficult for me to understand

predicted YES

@Messi MvW is at 11%, this one at 90%

bought Ṁ780 of YES

@Zardoru manifold took out 2.5 million out of his account. That means he's lost that amount. His 5 million position can't give him 5 million profit anymore. his balance is negative.

predicted YES

@AlexTurner Sure, but it seems people don't want to bet up to 99% odd before WvM actual resolution.

predicted YES

@Zardoru If it resolves N/A he won't have lost any mana on it.

predicted YES

@Messi If we have any mana to bet, it's being split on 100 markets equivalent just like this one to "will WvM resolve NO?", and there's not enough money in the system to bet them all down.

The stakes are definitely there:

bought Ṁ50 of YES

I believe this resolves YES if isaac loses WvM

@Shelvacu Nah, I only have ~M$700k invested so far.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Shelvacu Now should be the case. But it's less likely that WvM resolves NO.

Well, I have a problem as there is only "Top traders" and no "Top losers"on a market. So resolution will not be straightforward. I expect players will be kind enough to tell me how much they have lost.

@Zardoru You can see it under the "positions" tab. Change the "sort by" field from "positions" to "profit".

You can also see it under the "portfolio" tab of their profile.

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