Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2024?
27
213
510
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
YES

This question will only resolve YES for direct engagement between Iran and Israel. Here are some potential scenarios that would resolves YES:

  • Israel conducting airstrikes on targets inside Iran and/or the Iranians shooting down Israeli aircraft in Iranian airspace.

  • Targeted assassinations conducted by either side against government or military leaders of the other regardless of where they take place.

  • Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel and unambiguously NOT conducted by the US.

  • If it is shown Iran has boots on the ground in Gaza operating alongside Hamas or even directing their operation tactically in theater that would count, but ID needs to be irrefutable or acknowledged by Tehran.

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@BTE please could you clarify the resolution criteria regarding the latest strike on the Iranian embassy?

@LeonardoKr Oh yeah the most recent strike definitely counts as YES. Thanks for heads up!

@BTE FYI, title refers to 2023, presumably 2024 intended!

bought Ṁ45 of NO

@chrisjbillington Thank you!

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington There should be an auto-relist feature for annually resolving markets.

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