Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A. Please read the pinned comments and stay updated there.
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Two major international news outlets; Le Monde and Al Jazeera, have referred to the present advance as an invasion. The Institute for the Study of War has updated the evacuation area from a couple days ago to now be mostly a reported clearing operation area. I would like to hear from @SemioticRivalry @voodoo @houstonEuler and other No holders why this is still unlikely to resolve Yes in May from their point of view.
The seizure of the Rafah crossing is much more relevant than any number of aistrikes. Examples of things that would be strong arguments for Yes:
3+ Major news outlets such as CNN, the BBC, Al Jazeera, or the Washington Post describing the current Rafah operation as an invasion, territory taken, occupation, or taking an area such as western Rafah "under Israeli control".
The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd
An overwhelming preponderance of other prediction markets with similar language resolving Yes. Not just markets describing strikes in Rafah, but its full-scale invasion and at least substantial clearance.
We need more video and evidence of the scale involved. There were controversial markets last year when 10 or so tanks and some commando raids didn't constitute an invasion by some markets' standards. I certainly won't be resolving until we know what "targeted" means here. A dozen tanks being used as artillery? Mostly airstrikes with a small frontline shift? Or the entire eastern third of Rafah cleared? It's not certain yet.
After much reconsideration, I've reversed my opinion on Subjective markets such as this one.
Subjective markets have a place. I lost a lot on gpt2 market, which was also subjective, but it was only my fault - it was obviously subjective and I should have realized that when I bet. But I did anyways, because it was fun and they allow for debate and nuance that objective markets can't always capture.
My only issue is that I think Subjective markets like this one should be labeled as subjective up front so everyone has fair warning. The only time we should ever rate a market less than 5* is if the market is labeled objective and the creator refuses to clarify important issues.
From NYTimes: "For the past week Israel has described its offensive as a limited military operation, but satellite imagery and Mr. Gallant’s comments on Thursday suggested that a more significant incursion was already underway." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/world/middleeast/israel-rafah-gaza-famine.html
Washington Post calls it invasion into Rafah.
BBC Israeli troops reportedly advanced to within less than 1.6km (1 mile) from the centre of Rafah on Tuesday, when an Israeli soldier was killed in the south.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-69015371
Al Jazeera - Israel invades Rafah
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/5/9/dreams-deferred-in-gaza-as-israel-invades-rafah
Israeli forces are razing the earth from eastern to central Rafah, according to satellite imagery, ahead of a planned full-scale assault on the southern Gaza city.
Israeli bulldozing operations have been conducted almost a mile north of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, according to the latest imagery released by Planet Labs on May 15. Entire blocks have been destroyed or sustained significant damage since May 9.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-05-16-24/index.html
Invasion of Rafah
Mideast Eye - invasion of Rafah
at least substantial clearance. [check]
3+ sources calling invastion of Rafah
10% + show clearing.
the 9 day old strong arguments for yes are met.
@Joshua Yeah even though Patel is being obscurant about the invasion I didn't want the resolution moment itself to come from a deceptive reading. IftSoW has filled in more of the evacuation area as clearance ops, and the death of 1000 cuts reality on the ground is more than surgical raids, so I still expect to resolve Yes if trends continue.
@brianwang @Panfilo I have the largest ‘Yes’ position (idk if that means anything) — I’m not in a rush for this market to resolve. I feel confident that within May the invasion will become less and less ambiguous, even in the eyes of @SemioticRivalry.
See also this headline today from NYT:
It’s just unfortunate for @Panfilo that as the liquidity gets sucked up from a later resolution, they’ll receive less mana upon resolution. (At least as I understand it.)
@snazzlePop You only get back the 100 mana you put in at max actually. Most of the subsidy comes from the house, which is fine with losing it.
Update on the fighting in Rafah The IDF is on its way to further progress in Rafah, it seems that at the moment the IDF has stopped advancing to the refugee camps and is currently focusing on eliminating the nests of resistance in the eastern neighborhoods: Salam, Jenina, El Tanor - The commando brigade has entered Rafah, joining the Givati and 401 brigades, more brigades will probably enter soon - Fighting in the area of Arad al-Shawi in eastern Rafah (unidentified area) - The IDF blows up houses in the Al-Tanur neighborhood (north of the Jenina neighborhood) - Fighting in the Jenina, Al-Tanur and Salem neighborhoods in East Rafah - Artillery shelling on the whole of East Rafah, in addition to the Al Adas neighborhood and Brazil in the center of Rafah - Shooting from helicopters in East Rafah - Bombing in Al-Awda Square - Bombing near the Kuwaiti hospital in Rafah Map marked in blue the area by the IDF and in red the refugee camp in the center of Rafah:
https://twitter.com/orfialkov/status/1791163147245453472
NOTE- there is no surgical artillery shelling of the WHOLE of East Rafah.
https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790974441008116096
onight the Commando Brigade (89) entered the Gaza Strip. - They operate in Rafah under the 162nd Division, expanding the operation there. - There are now 9 IDF brigades operating throughout Gaza.
NY Times higher resolution map of evacuation zone covers far more of Rafah. Looks like half to me.
Title: Maps Show Scarce Shelter and Medical Care as Rafah Operation Is Underway
NY Times has "limited" operation [limited in quotes]
@brianwang @Panfilo You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd
We have crossed 10%. Also the main may 15 ISW article has operations up to Al Bayuk.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-15-2024
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/15/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine-rafah/
600000 have fled Rafah Per Washington post. Almost half the population
Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd
We have crossed 10%. Also the main may 15 ISW article has operations up to Al Bayuk.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-15-2024
The institute for the study of war is now specifying 20-30% of rafah as a clearing operation as Panfilo has already noted. If 10-15 US states were in a clearing operation then we would call that a full invasion. 1/3 of the population of rafah has fled. If I have an arm and a leg amputated then I guess that is surgery but it is not precise. There is limited pushback on resolving this because it has gotten very obvious.
@brianwang Not sure exactly what constitutes 'Rafah' on the isw map, but if and when this is indeed accurate, agreed that 20-30% is 100% 'large scale clearing operation'. I'd even go to 10%, especially with half the population forced to leave and already gone.
@gpt_news_headlines Note that the invasion of Rafah will likely take months if not longer. They are still clearing in the north. This market should resolve on the start of those large scale clearing operations, not on their completion.
Two major international news outlets; Le Monde and Al Jazeera, have referred to the present advance as an invasion. The Institute for the Study of War has updated the evacuation area from a couple days ago to now be mostly a reported clearing operation area. I would like to hear from @SemioticRivalry @voodoo @houstonEuler and other No holders why this is still unlikely to resolve Yes in May from their point of view.
@Panfilo I don’t think it’s unlikely unfortunately. I haven’t followed the latest as of today, I generally had hoped that the US opposition will force a delay or more tactical operations than a full ground invasion.
@Panfilo i really don't expect a reasonable resolution at this point, but the vast majority of the mainstream media agrees that it is not yet a full scale invasion and so do the governments. When an invasion actually happens, I expect headlines like "israel invades Rafah" from the New York Times, not an offhand mention of the word invasion from a French paper writing a story about refugees and Qatari state media parroting whatever the Emir tells them to.
@SemioticRivalry Part of what I'm trying to handle here is that once it became clear that the IDF wouldn't use the language, and that the media had a vested interest in talking around the red line, is that the original inclusion of moving en masse for a clearing operation was what remained as a fairly objective criterium. The spirit of the market is whether Israel invades Rafah this month, and them doing so at a slow pace with careful politicking doesn't disprove that's happening. What if the IftSoW map hits 20%? 30%? What would be en masse for you given that they use the same military terminology for clearing ops? We're already talking about more than the Metaculus resolution, which I agree was based on passing waypoints and not clearance.
@Panfilo I don't see any evidence that the media has 'a vested interest in talking around the red line', given how eagerly they cover every aspect of this conflict to the great detriment of both Israel and the Biden administration and to be completely honest this is a very strange theory that I don't think a market resolution should rest on.
A past version of me would go back and forth for dozens of comments with the goal of being logical enough to get to the 'right' resolution, but I just really can't be bothered. I'm pretty sure you are intent on resolving this to Yes no matter what I dig up, so I will save myself the time and stop commenting and simply give a rating at the end.
@Panfilo I think the current odds are appropriate, I've just been betting on the chance that:
1. This report is accurate, that Israel won't widen operations until Jake Sullivan's visit, and
2. Israel pulls back from the city due to mounting pressure, which I would consider to not qualify as an invasion.
I've considered this question as related to the international pressure being put on Israel to not invade the urban center of Rafah, because it would lead to a major loss of life.
So far, it seems like they're still on the outskirts, which I believe would count a "surgical raid of limited scope" if there isn't a major push forward.
I understand that this is going to be tricky, but I think there's still time for this market to resolve either way.
@SemioticRivalry I think the strongest argument is not that the media has a vested interest in whatever, but there might not be a point where the NYT actually reports an "invasion" given how gradual these incursions are.