Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?
361
5kṀ180k
resolved May 17
Resolved
YES
Hamas announces that they have accepted a recent version of the ceasefire proposals
Israel announces that strikes on Rafah will continue as ceasefire negotiations have not yet reached an acceptable conclusion
Biden has publicly confirmed a red line on weapons shipments if the IDF invades Rafah. [tweet]

Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.

Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A. Please read the pinned comments and stay updated there.

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