Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?
65
371
Ṁ6.4KṀ980
May 31
59%
chance
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1W
1M
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Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A.
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@Panfilo Negotiations are moving along and the proposed ceasefire is 6 weeks. I think it’s more likely than not that Rafah won’t be invaded in May.
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