This question will only resolve YES for direct engagement between Iran and Israel. Here are some potential scenarios that would resolves YES:

• Israel conducting airstrikes on targets inside Iran and/or the Iranians shooting down Israeli aircraft in Iranian airspace.

• Targeted assassinations conducted by either side against government or military leaders of the other regardless of where they take place.

• Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel and unambiguously NOT conducted by the US.

• If it is shown Iran has boots on the ground in Gaza operating alongside Hamas or even directing their operation tactically in theater that would count, but ID needs to be irrefutable or acknowledged by Tehran.
  

  Near duplicate of:
  https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-a-military-conflict-b