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@traders Resolving YES. The IDF has announced they killed Ra'ad Thabet while he was trying to escape from Al-Shifa, and he fits the markets resolution criteria. Credit to @Shump for finding sources.

He is mentioned as a senior weapons producer back in 2014: https://m.jpost.com/operation-protective-edge/idf-strike-kills-senior-islamic-jihad-member-36889.

And also compelling, he is included in the Hamas Most Wanted playing cards which were distributed to IDF soldiers, which I specifically gave as a good example proving notoriety earlier in this market.

Apologies if this market stayed open longer than people felt it needed to, but I set a high bar for the resolution criteria in the beginning so it needed to be maintained.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/troops-raiding-gazas-shifa-hospital-kill-senior-hamas-commander-idf-says/

Potentially resolves yes? This is from this mornin.

@eliot guys name is Raad Thabet according to the article you linked.

I'll consider the Hamas leader "senior" if they are widely reported as "senior", and if they have significant reporting on them prior to today easily available on the internet

I can't find any mention of this guy on the internet outside the context of today's news.

Edit: also saw the alternate spelling "Raad Taabat", also no results for that name. Though if there isn't consensus on how to transliterate a person's name, I'd think that suggests there probably hasn't been much reporting on them.

@chrisjbillington Seems fair.

@eliot @mint I don't know how significant the reporting needs to be but I did find some mentions of him from before this market.

Jpost called him senior in an article for 2014

So does Calcalist

Featured in a wikipedia page about Hamas Most Wanted Playing Cards. You can check Wikipedia's references for media sources reporting this.

@Shump Ah, it's because of the apostrophe in his name that I couldn't find him. The recent reporting I copied his name from didn't include an apostrophe and apparently Google cares.

The playing cards seem like good evidence he was indeed considered a senior member of Hamas prior to now.

Agree – I did some googling myself but if I had to guess, we all put the TOI name in quotes and then gave up when it didn't show up with an apostrophe.

Should certainly resolve yes, Saad was mentioned as a top aide to Deif in a 2009 nyt article

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/middleeast/13gaza.html

@SemioticRivalry thank you, Raed Sa'ad would definitely count. However it appears Israel has walked back that he was captured: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/blaming-human-error-idf-says-not-everyone-featured-in-image-of-captured-terror-operatives-has-been-caught-yet/. Though, as your tweet shows, they claim there are many senior leaders they captured (or are close to capturing) whose names have not been revealed yet. And according to another statement I saw, they are planning to release all names once the operation is done. We will wait until that information is released.

🚨🚨🚨 it appears the IDF has announced they captured more terror operatives and have named some of them. Remember traders, if any of these names meet the bar set in the resolution criteria, this market will resolve YES. Don't have time to look into them now.

@mint The problem is that we are betting on your subjective interpretation of "senior." I have no idea what you consider that to mean.

@HarrisonNathan I disagree that the bar is subjective, it's clearly laid out in the description. They need to have significant media reporting on them prior to the creation of this market, and need to be referred to by reliable sources as senior.

@mint If you are referring to English language media and using that specific wording, it's a 'no.'

@mint So far I see that media sources do consistently report, with attribution, that the IDF says they captured senior commanders.

I could post some sources but you can just google.

@HarrisonNathan @Shump I agree with both of you that media sources are consistently reporting some captured terrorists are senior Hamas members. However, from the beginning, this was not the resolution criteria stated in the description. We are still (as far as I can see) waiting for the reporting of someone who has been mentioned as a Hamas leader BEFORE the al Shifa raid. There is no shortage of sources online of terrorists in Gaza. There are even playing cards of Gazas Most Wanted. Frankly, I continue to believe the high bar I set is completely fair as it takes away any subjectivity about whether someone is "senior".

@traders the IDF has claimed to have killed "Faiq Mabhouh, head of the Operations Directorate of Hamas' Internal Security". As of now I am leaning towards not counting this for YES because when I searched him on Twitter and Google I couldn't find a single mention of him before this news broke. Anyone can feel free to bring evidence that this is actually a noteworthy Hamas leader that fits the markets resolution criteria, however.

But that doesn't mean the IDF or media won't announce other leaders being captured or killed in the raid who would count within the week.

@mint The one thing I can find is that Faiq was the brother of another Hamas leader that Israel assassinated in 2010. Faiq is quoted in this story: Brother of killed Hamas man says electrocuted to death (ynetnews.com).

@TimothyJohnson5c16 thank you for looking into this. After reviewing the article, my mind hasn't changed that this death still isn't likely to count. In the article, he is quoted only as "his brother". Of course, being the brother of a senior Hamas leader does not make you one. Notably, the article quotes other Hamas leaders using their actual title:

Hamas' deputy politburo chief Moussa Abu Marzouk said Friday, "Mossad agents are those who assassinated al-Mabhouh in Dubai."

This leads me to believe this specific article doesn't meet the bar I set in the description:

I'll consider the Hamas leader "senior" if they are widely reported as "senior", and if they have significant reporting on them prior to today easily available on the internet.

@traders should be aware this market is still likely to resolve NO unless Israel says another senior leader was killed, or I am presented with evidence this Hamas member meets the bar set in the resolution criteria.

@mint If you set the bar that high, it will probably resolve 'no.' The most senior leadership is in Doha, not Gaza.