Mohammed Deif (Hamas military commander) killed or captured by Israeli forces by end of 2024?
1k
2025
33%
chance

Mohammed Deif is the supreme military commander of Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas.

This market resolves YES on reliable international media reports of the killing or capture of Mohammed Deif by Israeli military forces before the end of 2024, local time in Israel, or NO if he is alive and not captured at the end of 2024.

If Deif's status cannot be ascertained to the satisfaction of the international community - for example: if Israel claims his capture or death, Hamas denies this, and neither provide compelling evidence, this market will resolve N/A.

In the case the outcome is not immediately clear, in establishing whether the international community has formed consensus on the status of Deif at the end of 2024, I will turn to Wikipedia as an indication. If the article on Deif says it is not known whether he is alive or dead, or free or captive, that's a clear N/A. If it says he is believed to be dead or captured, that's a YES. If it says he is believed to be alive and free, that's a NO. I will ensure any statements in Wikipedia do not appear to be part of an edit war. If Wikipedia doesn't seem like it is living up to my expectations as a good indicator of the consensus view of the international community, I may use other sources.


As this may involve a judgement call, I will not bet in this market.

Corner cases: If Deif kills himself (assisted or otherwise) in order to avoid capture, the market will resolve YES. If he is killed by friendly fire or some other mishap during and related to an active battle with or or attack by Israeli forces, the market will resolve YES. If he dies due to some other mishap outside of a battle or attack and not caused by Israeli forces, or is intentionally killed by anyone other than Israeli forces (other than as a means to avoid capture) the market resolves NO.

Addendum Nov 11th 2023: this market will resolve at the latest at end of 2024, given the state of public knowledge at that time. If Deif was killed/captured before the end of 2024 but we don't find out about it until 2025, this market will still resolve NO

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Might be a good idea to expand this market to multiple events so that it includes the other major Hamas leaders (Sinwar, Haniyeh, Meshaal). What do you think?

@AmHa Great idea, will do.

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