This is an attempt to anchor predictions about the alleged military use of Al-Shifa Hospital to a reliable resolution source. This question is specifically about the claims made by US Intelligence that the hospital was used to "Exercise certain command and control activities" as reported in this AP article :

“The U.S. Intelligence Community is confident in its judgment on this topic and has independently corroborated information on HAMAS and PIJ’s use of the hospital complex for a variety of purposes related to its campaign against Israel,” the assessment states. It continues that it believes the groups “used the al-Shifa hospital complex and sites beneath it to house command infrastructure, exercise certain command and control activities, store some weapons, and hold at least a few hostages.”

Rootclaim is an organization known for doing probabilistic analysis of unclear events, including events related to war. They challenge anyone who disagrees with their claims to prove them wrong in a debate with neutral judges and win large sums of money.

Rootclaim was founded and funded by Saar Wilf who is basically synonymous with the project as I understand it, so I will also accept less formal analysis by Saar himself to resolve this market if he ever states his personal probability on this subject.

I will also count any new forms of analysis that Rootclaim might start to do besides their big formal analyses if they decide to branch out from that content, as long as they give a probability.

The question of whether and how Al-Shifa Hospital was used by Hamas seems like the kind of high-profile uncertainty they might decide to analyze. I don't think this is particularly likely as there are many such questions they could cover, but I think it's possible enough to be worth betting on. I also think that because Rootclaim is generally in the same cultural sphere as Manifold, someone might be able to ask them/him if only just for these markets.

The first three questions in this unlinked market asks how likely it is that Rootclaim/Saar give a probability on this issue, and the other questions are all conditional markets on this occurring.

If this analysis does not occur by 2027 or if we get a definitive statement from Rootclaim/Saar saying they won't take a stance on the issue, these conditional questions resolve N/A.

If Rootclaim/Saar does give a probability on whether the hospital was used to "Exercise certain command and control activities", these conditional markets resolve according to that probability.

As this is a complex and controversial topic, I am open to suggestions on how to improve these resolution criteria and may update the rules to better fit the spirit of the question as I see fit.