Will Hamas issue an ultimatum threatening to execute a hostage?
39
1kṀ5386
2026
10%
chance

Must be a specific threat to execute one or more hostages at a certain time or under a specific potentially imminent condition such as Israeli forces entering a certain city. Must be publicly known while the ultimatum and be credible enough in its source and specificity to meaningfully escalate the crises. A regular or semi regular pattern of executing hostages that is understood by Israel as an implicit ultimatum also counts. Resolves NO on the resolution of the hostage crisis without this happening.

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