Will Hamas issue an ultimatum threatening to execute a hostage?
39
1kṀ53862026
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Must be a specific threat to execute one or more hostages at a certain time or under a specific potentially imminent condition such as Israeli forces entering a certain city. Must be publicly known while the ultimatum and be credible enough in its source and specificity to meaningfully escalate the crises. A regular or semi regular pattern of executing hostages that is understood by Israel as an implicit ultimatum also counts. Resolves NO on the resolution of the hostage crisis without this happening.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Hamas execute an Israeli hostage and release video of the killing.
13% chance
Given that Hamas will execute a hostage and release video of the killing, will at least 1 hostage be a child under 16?
23% chance
Will Hezbollah take hostages?
2% chance
Will the IDF kill more of Hamas's October 7th hostages than Hamas does?
8% chance