Will Hamas issue an ultimatum threatening to execute a hostage?
24
179
1k
2025
30%
chance

Must be a specific threat to execute one or more hostages at a certain time or under a specific potentially imminent condition such as Israeli forces entering a certain city. Must be publicly known while the ultimatum and be credible enough in its source and specificity to meaningfully escalate the crises. A regular or semi regular pattern of executing hostages that is understood by Israel as an implicit ultimatum also counts. Resolves NO on the resolution of the hostage crisis without this happening.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ500 of YES

Hamas issued a new threat to execute hostages tied to aid demands. Not a prior threat from before the market, and covered by multiple major news outlets:

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/december-11-israel-hamas-war

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-gaza-hamas-hostages-families-netanyahu-red-cross-palestinians-1851567

@NateWatson Can this resolve Yes?

@Panfilo Trying to find more info but sources quote the Hamas spokesman as saying something like “No hostage will leave Gaza alive [unless our demands are met]”. Obviously this is a very clear implicit threat to kill hostages at some point, (and saying no more releases) but unless there is more, it is the kind of generalized threat this clause is designed to exclude:

Must be a specific threat to execute one or more hostages at a certain time or under a specific potentially imminent condition such as Israeli forces entering a certain city

The clause is there because it’s always been pretty clear Hamas is threatening to kill the hostages and I want to know if they will try to escalate by setting a deadline.

More related questions