Will Israel invade Rafah in April 2024?
88
500
Ṁ12KṀ1.2K
Apr 30
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence.
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