J. F. Jurchen's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.94
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when J. F. Jurchen bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ500
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ500
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ222
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- If Manifold stops their charity program, will they reintroduce something similar in the next five years?YESṀ1,000
- Will any other executives (other than SBF) be charged with a crime for her involvement with FTX / Alameda Research in 2022?YESṀ589
- Will Zvi Mowshowitz reveal he has created a discord server between now and July 1, 2022?YESṀ500