Will Russia invade Ukraine before the Winter Olympics conclude?
Sports•Ukraine-Russia war
153
160
resolved Feb 20
Resolved
NO
This resolves to yes if Russia invades Ukraine prior to February 20, 2022. Feb 10, 10:33am: If the AP reports a physical incursion by Russia on Ukrainian soil.
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bought Ṁ38 of NO
Test
bought Ṁ100 of NO
like come on
bought Ṁ24 of YES
https://discord.gg/projectowl
bought Ṁ1 of YES
That's one hell of a take
bought Ṁ15 of YES
Russia maybe like to join NATO to protect people from chaos in failed corrupt democracy ukraine, moldova belarus and free people of Transnistria, quite worried about it scary. But I know this is only dream of the truths?

@Mirek this aged well

bought Ṁ50 of YES
Yep, I think I'll agree with Patrick here.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Seems that 1) The reports of shelling of Ukraine and 2) Stock Market's reaction should have moved the implied probability. My guess is that there is just not that many users on Manifold Markets to make an immediate difference, or people just aren't just jumping in and changing their bets yet, which suggests there could be a huge arbitrage opportunity on all of the Russia trades in the case that things quickly escalate and the majority of users forget about Manifold until it's too late.
bought Ṁ5 of YES
I created a weighted Index fund for this and the other largest volume Market on Manifold currently: https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-the-weighted-outcome-of-the-tw
bought Ṁ1,530 of NO
here goes everything
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Can... Can Russia even do that? Join NATO? Aren't they like, the major threat that NATO is still relevant as a pact against?
bought Ṁ76 of YES
Russia maybe wants to join NATO?
bought Ṁ300 of YES
https://twitter.com/cbswalsh/status/1493295395992227849?s=21
bought Ṁ25 of YES
🥇
bought Ṁ5 of YES
This week?
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Duplicate market: https://manifold.markets/KatiBehrenwald/will-russia-begin-an-invasion-of-uk
bought Ṁ196 of YES
Looking like YES
bought Ṁ18 of NO
Must be reported by the AP. Invasion is counted as offensive movement or incursion of military on Ukrainian soil.
bought Ṁ200 of NO
How will you know if Russia invades Ukraine? What counts as an invasion?

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