Will Russia invade Ukraine before the Winter Olympics conclude?
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100αΉ63kresolved Feb 20
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This resolves to yes if Russia invades Ukraine prior to February 20, 2022.
Feb 10, 10:33am: If the AP reports a physical incursion by Russia on Ukrainian soil.
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Seems that 1) The reports of shelling of Ukraine and 2) Stock Market's reaction should have moved the implied probability. My guess is that there is just not that many users on Manifold Markets to make an immediate difference, or people just aren't just jumping in and changing their bets yet, which suggests there could be a huge arbitrage opportunity on all of the Russia trades in the case that things quickly escalate and the majority of users forget about Manifold until it's too late.
I created a weighted Index fund for this and the other largest volume Market on Manifold currently:
https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-the-weighted-outcome-of-the-tw