Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included) | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2023

Nuclear Risk Politics

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)

17%

chance

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is predicting YES at 19%

sold Ṁ50 of YES

sold Ṁ18 of YES

bought Ṁ200 of NO

sold Ṁ420 of YES

is predicting YES at 48%

sold Ṁ236 of YES

is predicting YES at 46%

is predicting YES at 42%

bought Ṁ300 of YES

sold Ṁ0 of NO

bought Ṁ100 of YES

is predicting YES at 47%

bought Ṁ40 of YES

is predicting NO at 51%

is predicting YES at 50%

is predicting YES at 50%

sold Ṁ260 of NO

is predicting YES at 50%

is predicting YES at 37%

Florence Hinder

is predicting YES at 44%

is predicting YES at 44%

Florence Hinder

is predicting YES at 38%

is predicting YES at 36%

is predicting NO at 32%

bought Ṁ20 of YES

bought Ṁ10 of YES

bought Ṁ150 of YES

is predicting YES at 28%

is predicting NO at 34%

bought Ṁ100 of YES

bought Ṁ16 of YES

Florence Hinder

bought Ṁ25 of YES

is predicting YES at 14%

bought Ṁ40 of YES

bought Ṁ169 of YES

is predicting YES at 21%

Florence Hinder

bought Ṁ50 of NO

is predicting NO at 11%

is predicting NO at 17%

is predicting NO at 16%

bought Ṁ0 of YES

bought Ṁ50 of YES