Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)
resolved Jan 1

This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.

  • A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.

  • A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised

  • Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.

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Edited title to help readers more easily distinguish it (nothing about the resolution criteria changed, it was already explicily stated): Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? → Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)

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predicted NO

2023 market:

predicted YES

Lol I can't sell because my net proceeds would be negative from the loan so I'd have less capital for eoy resolutions ><

predicted NO

how was this at 50%

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack There were rumors around thanksgiving that North Korea would do a test.

predicted NO

@BoltonBailey Not just rumors, US and South Korean intelligence were warning that a test was likely imminent. As of now, I still believe the predictions on this market were reasonably accurate. As an example, this news article https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221016002900315 shortly after the Chinese National Congress said

The office of President Yoon Suk-yeol has been on 24-hour standby as North Korea has been expected to conduct its seventh nuclear test at any time, officials said Sunday.

And satellite imagery showed North Korea's underground nuclear test site was reopened, and there was a ton of messaging from North Korea and South Korea and the US preparing for a possible nuclear test. See https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-422f66ae0107 for a lot more details if you're interested.

Also worth noting, it wasn't just Manifold - other prediction sites were giving similarly high predictions, such as https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2370-between-29-april-2022-and-30-november-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device

@jacksonpolack they explode nukes most of the years don't they?

I wager yes, an "accident" from Russia

predicted YES


Note that this market is now very nearly a duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/if-ukraine-gains-control-of-kherson

These markets seem wildly inconsistent. 18% NK conducts a weapons test in 2022, 19% anyone conducts a weapons test? 18% NK test * 26% war with SK given NK test = 5% deadly war with NK involving a nuke test by Feb 2023? Think I'll arb these against each other

Adjusting my odds here since the other market swung so heavily so late, so I'm trusting the current % less and leaning more heavily towards my own priors.

Low volume (maybe $2k would push it to Manifold odds, but might elicit 5-6 figures if you did)


predicted YES

@Gigacasting Oh wow, that is shockingly low by comparison. Thanks for the link.

That market was just created a day ago so I wouldn't be surprised if the traders haven't quite realized that the largest risk is North Korea, and not Russia.

predicted YES

Someone should arb this!

predicted YES

@jack Did someone say Arb? ;-)

Idk, adding PolyMarket support to ArbBot sounds like a lot of work...

Slider = 🐜 🐛 🐞

Mega arb

predicted YES


@Gigacasting Arb - p(North Korea) should always trade <= p(world)

predicted NO

So this includes a nuclear detonation as a test and not just as an act of war?

predicted YES
predicted YES

Yes, as per the market description: "A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES."

Here's a market on non-test detonation:

predicted YES
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