This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.
A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised
Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
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Edited title to help readers more easily distinguish it (nothing about the resolution criteria changed, it was already explicily stated): Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? → Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,540 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,355 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,287 | |
| 4 | Ṁ759 | |
| 5 | Ṁ682 |
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@BoltonBailey Not just rumors, US and South Korean intelligence were warning that a test was likely imminent. As of now, I still believe the predictions on this market were reasonably accurate. As an example, this news article https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221016002900315 shortly after the Chinese National Congress said
The office of President Yoon Suk-yeol has been on 24-hour standby as North Korea has been expected to conduct its seventh nuclear test at any time, officials said Sunday.
And satellite imagery showed North Korea's underground nuclear test site was reopened, and there was a ton of messaging from North Korea and South Korea and the US preparing for a possible nuclear test. See https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-422f66ae0107 for a lot more details if you're interested.
Also worth noting, it wasn't just Manifold - other prediction sites were giving similarly high predictions, such as https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2370-between-29-april-2022-and-30-november-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device
Note that this market is now very nearly a duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/if-ukraine-gains-control-of-kherson
Low volume (maybe $2k would push it to Manifold odds, but might elicit 5-6 figures if you did)
https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-before-2023
@jack Did someone say Arb? ;-)
Idk, adding PolyMarket support to ArbBot sounds like a lot of work...
