resolved Jan 1
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)

This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.

  • A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.

  • A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised

  • Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.

See for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.

Related questions

Edited title to help readers more easily distinguish it (nothing about the resolution criteria changed, it was already explicily stated): Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? → Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
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jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO

2023 market:

Preen avatar
Preenpredicted YES at 1%

Lol I can't sell because my net proceeds would be negative from the loan so I'd have less capital for eoy resolutions ><

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicted NO at 2%

how was this at 50%

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileypredicted NO at 2%

@jacksonpolack There were rumors around thanksgiving that North Korea would do a test.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 2%

@BoltonBailey Not just rumors, US and South Korean intelligence were warning that a test was likely imminent. As of now, I still believe the predictions on this market were reasonably accurate. As an example, this news article shortly after the Chinese National Congress said

The office of President Yoon Suk-yeol has been on 24-hour standby as North Korea has been expected to conduct its seventh nuclear test at any time, officials said Sunday.

And satellite imagery showed North Korea's underground nuclear test site was reopened, and there was a ton of messaging from North Korea and South Korea and the US preparing for a possible nuclear test. See for a lot more details if you're interested.

Also worth noting, it wasn't just Manifold - other prediction sites were giving similarly high predictions, such as

MP avatar

@jacksonpolack they explode nukes most of the years don't they?

anne avatar
annebought Ṁ10 of YES

I wager yes, an "accident" from Russia

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingpredicted YES at 19%


Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingsold Ṁ50 of YES
MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blumesold Ṁ18 of YES

Note that this market is now very nearly a duplicate of

OliverBalfour avatar
Oliver Balfour

These markets seem wildly inconsistent. 18% NK conducts a weapons test in 2022, 19% anyone conducts a weapons test? 18% NK test * 26% war with SK given NK test = 5% deadly war with NK involving a nuke test by Feb 2023? Think I'll arb these against each other

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPandabought Ṁ200 of NO

Adjusting my odds here since the other market swung so heavily so late, so I'm trusting the current % less and leaning more heavily towards my own priors.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingsold Ṁ420 of YES

Low volume (maybe $2k would push it to Manifold odds, but might elicit 5-6 figures if you did)

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 48%

@Gigacasting Oh wow, that is shockingly low by comparison. Thanks for the link.

jack avatar
Jacksold Ṁ236 of YES

That market was just created a day ago so I wouldn't be surprised if the traders haven't quite realized that the largest risk is North Korea, and not Russia.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 46%

Someone should arb this!

Yev avatar
Yevpredicted YES at 42%

@jack Did someone say Arb? ;-)

Idk, adding PolyMarket support to ArbBot sounds like a lot of work...

v avatar
VelocityBotbought Ṁ300 of YES
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingsold Ṁ0 of NO

Slider = 🐜 🐛 🐞

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ100 of YES

Mega arb

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingpredicted YES at 47%


lu avatar
lubought Ṁ40 of YES

@Gigacasting Arb - p(North Korea) should always trade <= p(world)

DavidDavidson avatar
David Davidsonpredicted NO at 51%

So this includes a nuclear detonation as a test and not just as an act of war?

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blumepredicted YES at 50%
jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 50%

Yes, as per the market description: "A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES."

Here's a market on non-test detonation:

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 50%

It sounds like the essentially same messaging we've been seeing for the last 2 weeks, so it didn't really change my prediction.

From that article:

"We think they're ready to go. Kim just has to give the thumbs up," a senior U.S. State Department official told CBS News. 

South Korean intelligence assesses that North Korea may conduct the test on the cusp of the upcoming Nov. 8 U.S. midterm elections.

Potential military responses are likely to include more exercises in the region. A Pentagon report issued on Thursday stated: "The Department will continue to deter attacks through forward posture; integrated air and missile defense; close coordination and interoperability with our ROK (Republic of Korea) Ally; nuclear deterrence; resilience initiatives; and the potential for direct cost imposition approaches that come from globally deployable Joint Forces."


“So we are following this very, very closely. We hope it doesn’t happen, but indications unfortunately go in another direction,” he said.

The IAEA’s Grossi said he did not think a North Korea test was immediately imminent.

“We see preparation, we see lots of things, but in terms of degrees of imminency, no,” he said in response to a question.

Yev avatar

An experimental market without a fixed resolution date:

Gigacasting avatar
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 37%
FlorenceHinder avatar
Florence Hinderpredicted YES at 44%

@BTE This is the first Mirror article I have read... Is anyone else reporting this too?? I struggle to believe what I read when it's the Mirror.

TimP avatar
Tim Ppredicted YES at 44%

@FlorenceHinder Kind of sounds like they are just talking about missile tests anyway.

FlorenceHinder avatar
Florence Hinderpredicted YES at 38%

@TimP they are alleging that they were nuclear missile tests that didn't get completed. If they were completed this would mean this question would be resolved as "Yes."

TimP avatar
Tim Ppredicted YES at 36%

@FlorenceHinder From the article I have the impression that it is realy just about the missile test. Which would be irrelevant for the market since it's only about nuclear detonations, nothing about delivery systems.

Austin avatar
Austinpredicted NO at 32%

"@jack bought M$150 YES from 25% to 35%" (!!)

Any particular reason for this update?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ20 of YES

@Austin ROK defense minister last night said the North could test multiple weapons in quick succession to limit the political fallout. That is why I am buying at least.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ10 of YES
jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ150 of YES

Yes, chances of North Korea nuclear test look higher. I've been continuously correcting for mispricing vs the below market for several days.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 28%

25 -> 35 is not an update for me, other people keep buying it down and I keep buying it back up.

Austin avatar
Austinpredicted NO at 34%

@jack interesting, why not eg a limit order at 30%?

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ100 of YES

I put some small limit orders at 30 earlier, they got filled. And I put bigger limit orders in the high 20s. There's a high risk of market movements on news, so I'm avoiding big limit orders too close to my predicted price. And also, part of what I'm doing is arbitraging related markets, and that can't really be done with limit orders.

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViibought Ṁ16 of YES

Just arbing (not that its particularly profitable)

FlorenceHinder avatar
Florence Hinderbought Ṁ25 of YES

It seems strange that the current market predictions show North Korea conducting a Nuclear test being higher than anyone conducting a test! I am updating my predictions based on this.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 14%

@FlorenceHinder Yes, the markets are inefficient. I'm hoping to work on a bot that will arbitrage these markets to improve this :)

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ40 of YES

There is a small wrinkle because there is some chance of North Korea performing an unsuccessful nuclear test. If it does not result in a nuclear detonation, but is still detected or reported, then the North Korea test market would resolve YES while this market resolves NO. I think the chance of this is quite small though.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ169 of YES

Updating up on the chances of a North Korean nuclear test, which I now believe is more likely than a Russian detonation.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 21%

Here's the market on Russian detonation:

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ50 of NO

Proxy war finally cooling off a bit

jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 11%

On the likelihood of nuclear weapons used outside Ukraine


jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 17%

Some more questions on nuclear escalation paths:

MP avatar

Do we have markets on how the US will react?

jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 16%

@MP Just made one, there's lots of other potential questions to ask

JayanthKumar avatar
Jayanth Kumarbought Ṁ50 of YES

Significant possibility of a test of nuclear weapons occurring.