This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.
A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised
Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
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Edited title to help readers more easily distinguish it (nothing about the resolution criteria changed, it was already explicily stated): Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? → Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,540 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,355 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,287 | |
| 4 | Ṁ759 | |
| 5 | Ṁ682 |
Lol I can't sell because my net proceeds would be negative from the loan so I'd have less capital for eoy resolutions ><
@jacksonpolack There were rumors around thanksgiving that North Korea would do a test.
@BoltonBailey Not just rumors, US and South Korean intelligence were warning that a test was likely imminent. As of now, I still believe the predictions on this market were reasonably accurate. As an example, this news article https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221016002900315 shortly after the Chinese National Congress said
The office of President Yoon Suk-yeol has been on 24-hour standby as North Korea has been expected to conduct its seventh nuclear test at any time, officials said Sunday.
And satellite imagery showed North Korea's underground nuclear test site was reopened, and there was a ton of messaging from North Korea and South Korea and the US preparing for a possible nuclear test. See https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-422f66ae0107 for a lot more details if you're interested.
Also worth noting, it wasn't just Manifold - other prediction sites were giving similarly high predictions, such as https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2370-between-29-april-2022-and-30-november-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device
Note that this market is now very nearly a duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/if-ukraine-gains-control-of-kherson
These markets seem wildly inconsistent. 18% NK conducts a weapons test in 2022, 19% anyone conducts a weapons test? 18% NK test * 26% war with SK given NK test = 5% deadly war with NK involving a nuke test by Feb 2023? Think I'll arb these against each other
Adjusting my odds here since the other market swung so heavily so late, so I'm trusting the current % less and leaning more heavily towards my own priors.
Low volume (maybe $2k would push it to Manifold odds, but might elicit 5-6 figures if you did)
https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-before-2023
@Gigacasting Oh wow, that is shockingly low by comparison. Thanks for the link.
That market was just created a day ago so I wouldn't be surprised if the traders haven't quite realized that the largest risk is North Korea, and not Russia.
So this includes a nuclear detonation as a test and not just as an act of war?
Yes, as per the market description: "A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES."
Here's a market on non-test detonation:
Took my losses and ran on this one
North Korea set to conduct tactical nuclear test anytime, U.S. and South Korean officials say - CBS News
It sounds like the essentially same messaging we've been seeing for the last 2 weeks, so it didn't really change my prediction.
From that article:
"We think they're ready to go. Kim just has to give the thumbs up," a senior U.S. State Department official told CBS News.
South Korean intelligence assesses that North Korea may conduct the test on the cusp of the upcoming Nov. 8 U.S. midterm elections.
Potential military responses are likely to include more exercises in the region. A Pentagon report issued on Thursday stated: "The Department will continue to deter attacks through forward posture; integrated air and missile defense; close coordination and interoperability with our ROK (Republic of Korea) Ally; nuclear deterrence; resilience initiatives; and the potential for direct cost imposition approaches that come from globally deployable Joint Forces."
Counterpoint:
“So we are following this very, very closely. We hope it doesn’t happen, but indications unfortunately go in another direction,” he said.
The IAEA’s Grossi said he did not think a North Korea test was immediately imminent.
“We see preparation, we see lots of things, but in terms of degrees of imminency, no,” he said in response to a question.
Reports that Putin ordered and Russia has scheduled then subsequently canceled TWO separate tests in the last two weeks.
@BTE This is the first Mirror article I have read... Is anyone else reporting this too?? I struggle to believe what I read when it's the Mirror.
@FlorenceHinder Kind of sounds like they are just talking about missile tests anyway.
@TimP they are alleging that they were nuclear missile tests that didn't get completed. If they were completed this would mean this question would be resolved as "Yes."
@FlorenceHinder From the article I have the impression that it is realy just about the missile test. Which would be irrelevant for the market since it's only about nuclear detonations, nothing about delivery systems.
@Austin ROK defense minister last night said the North could test multiple weapons in quick succession to limit the political fallout. That is why I am buying at least.
Yes, chances of North Korea nuclear test look higher. I've been continuously correcting for mispricing vs the below market for several days.
25 -> 35 is not an update for me, other people keep buying it down and I keep buying it back up.
I put some small limit orders at 30 earlier, they got filled. And I put bigger limit orders in the high 20s. There's a high risk of market movements on news, so I'm avoiding big limit orders too close to my predicted price. And also, part of what I'm doing is arbitraging related markets, and that can't really be done with limit orders.
It seems strange that the current market predictions show North Korea conducting a Nuclear test being higher than anyone conducting a test! I am updating my predictions based on this.
@FlorenceHinder Yes, the markets are inefficient. I'm hoping to work on a bot that will arbitrage these markets to improve this :)
There is a small wrinkle because there is some chance of North Korea performing an unsuccessful nuclear test. If it does not result in a nuclear detonation, but is still detected or reported, then the North Korea test market would resolve YES while this market resolves NO. I think the chance of this is quite small though.
Updating up on the chances of a North Korean nuclear test, which I now believe is more likely than a Russian detonation.
Related forecasting: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022
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