By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Scandal Markets FTX Liquidity Crunch Effective Altruism

By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?

20%

chance

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

Benjamin Cosman

is predicting NO at 15%

is predicting YES at 16%

sold Ṁ93 of YES

is predicting YES at 26%

is predicting NO at 32%

sold Ṁ99 of NO

is predicting YES at 34%

sold Ṁ116 of YES

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Philip Hazelden

is predicting NO at 18%

is predicting NO at 18%

bought Ṁ10 of NO

is predicting NO at 34%

is predicting NO at 39%

is predicting NO at 40%

is predicting NO at 36%

is predicting NO at 25%

is predicting YES at 23%

bought Ṁ100 of YES

bought Ṁ400 of NO

is predicting YES at 25%

is predicting YES at 23%

is predicting NO at 23%

bought Ṁ100 of NO

is predicting YES at 23%

is predicting NO at 26%

bought Ṁ100 of YES

is predicting YES at 28%

is predicting NO at 22%

is predicting NO at 31%

is predicting NO at 26%

is predicting NO at 29%

mukimame addict

mukimame addict

bought Ṁ100 of YES

bought Ṁ100 of NO

is predicting YES at 22%

is predicting YES at 20%

bought Ṁ700 of NO

bought Ṁ10 YES from 19% to 20%

sold Ṁ15 NO at 19%

bought Ṁ2 YES at 19%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 20% to 19%

created limit order for Ṁ150 NO at 59%

created limit order for Ṁ300 NO at 60% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ200 NO at 55% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 49%

sold Ṁ36 NO at 20%

sold Ṁ10 YES at 20%

bought Ṁ200 NO from 22% to 20%

sold Ṁ64 NO from 21% to 22%

sold Ṁ63 NO at 21%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 21%

sold Ṁ15 NO at 21%

bought Ṁ20 NO at 21%

Claude M. Foster

bought Ṁ10 YES from 20% to 21%

sold Ṁ6 YES from 21% to 20%

sold Ṁ11 NO at 21%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 20% to 21%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 20%

sold Ṁ199 NO from 18% to 20%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 19% to 18%

created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 24%

created limit order for Ṁ40 NO at 25%

sold Ṁ10 YES at 19%

bought Ṁ1 YES at 19%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 19%

bought Ṁ95 NO at 19%

created limit order for Ṁ62 YES at 16%

sold Ṁ11 NO at 19%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 20% to 19%

Catherine David

bought Ṁ100 NO from 21% to 20%

bought Ṁ30 NO at 21%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 20% to 21%

bought Ṁ15 YES at 20%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 19% to 20%

bought Ṁ90 YES from 17% to 19%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 15% to 17%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 15%

filled limit order Ṁ56/Ṁ100 YES at 15%

created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 12%

created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 14%

created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 13%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ150/Ṁ150 NO at 14%

filled limit order Ṁ800/Ṁ800 NO at 15%

sold Ṁ27 YES from 20% to 19%

created limit order for Ṁ250 YES at 12% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 17% to 20%

sold Ṁ11 NO from 16% to 17%