real money market: https://polymarket.com/market/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022
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Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once after October 27, 2022, and by December 31, 2022, (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.
Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Here is the market for 2023:
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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There's a short term extension market for those who don't want to jump all the way out to the end of 2023:
https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/donald-trumps-return-on-twitter-wil
Seems vanishingly unlikely now https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/social-platforms-policy
He's not even allowed to post to promote truthsocial, so I don't expect to see him post unless he wants to get suspended in the process.
@makoyass Given that the policy appears to have been created just 1-2 days ago, and then promptly deleted, I don't think it has any bearing on what Trump is considering. My guess is that it's related to elonjet stuff anyway, and people trying to bypass the doxxing ban by posting it on Facebook/Mastodon and linking to it instead of directly posting it on Twitter.
@AshleyM Seems pretty unlikely Trumps account would be in that state given the twitter poll
@Preen It's not clear if anyone, including Tomek K who published this poll, has any way of knowing for sure
@Preen Oh I see you said Twitter poll, I presume you mean the one Elon posted a few weeks ago? Still has no bearing IMO; for all we know this "read-only" state was developed just for DJT to be "reinstated"
@AshleyM my account has been in this state for two years! I think this is just what happens when they ban you.
Maybe this is way out of left field, but I would consider the possibility that Trump's use of Twitter (past and future) has not been sheer pathologic compulsion and may in fact be a deliberate decision. If that's so, why would he, in the next three weeks, reverse his stated plan not to use it?
Trump is… still suing Twitter to be let on despite having already been let on? It looks like Trump (‘s lawyers) are looking to set a precedent and get monetary damages, so it seems more unlikely that he’ll choose to go back on.
@Gabrielle uhh what does staying off twitter have to do with that legal fight? It's not as if he can argue that he's still banned just because he has chosen not to tweet.
@makoyass No direct connection, but it made me update towards being less likely compared to before I knew about the court case.
@MP He is, he just hasn't logged in yet. Once he does, he will not be able to resist tweeting.
@DavidBolin So much money riding on the question of whether he's gotten a new phone in the last two years.