If Manifold stops their charity program, will they reintroduce something similar in the next five years?
15
55
310
resolved Feb 24
Resolved
YES

If the embedded market below resolves YES, I will consider the antecedens of the market question true.

This market resolves Yes, if there will be an official way to convert Mana into charity donations again (im unclear what the exact resolution criteria should be and am open to suggestions). Since this is somewhat subjective, I will not bet.

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I think this should resolves yes, given the description, any counterarguments?

predicted YES

@kottsiek When the question says "If Manifold stops their charity program" then that means it should resolve N/A if the "if" event doesn't happen.

predicted YES

Hmm, actually this one is tricky because you linked a market for the antecedents, and that one did resolve YES. Never mind, I guess this should resolve YES.

@jack yeah, kinda unfortunately worded given events.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@kottsiek Yeah, basically this was "If Manifold announces they are stopping their charity program, will they reintroduce something similar in the next five years?" which is basically what happened, although in a bit of an odd way.

predicted YES

Related market with a shorter timespan:

predicted YES

Copying my comment https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-manifold-permanently-cease-all

https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-still-be-accepting-pa#m8hOO3fpBOJeJ25me4pb

Stripe apparently does not allow buying mana -> trading / "gambling" mana -> donating mana.

Unfortunately, we will not be able to support your business on Stripe in its current state as it violates the Crowdfunding and Gambling umbrellas in our terms of service.

That said, there are three paths you can take here where we will be able to reconsider supporting your account. I do want to call out that we can’t guarantee supportability in any of the options, but we will do our best to be as transparent as possible with you.

  • Make the Mana payment flow a closed-loop system by removing the charitable donation piece, as well as any prizes of value (t-shirts, merch, etc), so that Mana can  not be redeemed in any manner.

  • Or alter your crowdfunding model to raise funds for a specific cause or project. 

    • You would still need to remove any prizes of value in this scenario.

  • Or you can meet our charitable gambling requirements by taking steps to.:

In both option two and three you would need to go through additional due diligence with us, which would involve a series of in-depth follow-up questions and requests for info from Stripe. Our team will support you through this process.

Manifold could also stop using Stripe - either stop accepting mana purchases entirely, or try to switch to another payment processor, although another processor could have similar restrictions and this would also take some time and effort.

Options 2 and 3 seem like they would take a longer term effort (not just the Manifold effort, but the additional due diligence that Stripe needs), so in the short term I'm predicting that Manifold is going to go with option 1. They can then get 501c3 status or limit redemptions to specific causes to be able to turn on charitable donations at a later point in time. Manifold for Good has a lot of funds that they will need to disburse somehow, and it doesn't necessarily have to be tied to mana but I would be surprised if they don't reenable charitable donations later.

Also Austin says "if we do decide to turn off charity redemptions, we'll give everyone some warning first (probably at least a week)" https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-still-be-accepting-pa#KnMfzPQzTvmPMvhM53E9

Note: all of this is just my speculation, I expect Manifold will give us an official announcement in the coming weeks before the Stripe deadline.