Conditional on Jurchen-Honorable resolving N/A, will Jurchen have at least +100 on Undex-Round-2?
Resolved
YES
Jun 19
M$2,407 bet

💬 Proven correct

Gurkenglas
Gurkenglas bought M$600 of YES
@jfjurchen Indeed!
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Gurkenglas made M$84!
ahalekelly
Adrian bought M$100 of YES
Should have double checked your math before buying No.
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting YES at 62%
In retrospect I should not have bid this up so high, since the worlds where the underlying market resolves N/A are likely to be ones where Gurkenglas and Undox agree that I am not at +100 and in that case I cannot get to +100 without being dishonorable (which I do not believe myself to be). But I think I'm better off holding my shares in the expectation that this will resolve N/A than selling them off at a loss.
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting YES at 62%
I guess it's not dishonorable to trade in that world, as long as I'm doing it in order to push my profit to M$100. So on reflection I feel good about my YES, as long as the "you are not at +M$100" statement doesn't come right before the market resolves.
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Gurkenglas
@jfjurchen The current implementation of N/A rolls back all trading, which does not lock in a profit just because you've sold your position.
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting YES at 92%
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jfjurchen
So this resolves YES if I resolve the honorable market N/A but have no further activity on the underlying market, right?
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Gurkenglas
Gurkenglas bought M$600 of YES
@jfjurchen Indeed!
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Gurkenglas
Gurkenglas is betting NO at 86%
Assuming that you are currently at +100, which Undox would in this hypothetical presumably deny.
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen bought M$200 of YES
@Gurkenglas Is the +100 in this market's resolution criteria based on Undox's judgement, or yours?
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Gurkenglas
Gurkenglas sold M$31 of NO
Mine.
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen bought M$50 of YES
Okay, I guess that's good.
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