Conditional on Jurchen-Honorable resolving N/A, will Jurchen have at least +100 on Undex-Round-2?

Basic

Ṁ2407

resolved Jun 19

Resolved

YES

ALL

https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/is-j-f-jurchen-honorable#c4njb0X6cRFXjr9buTzT https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a

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1,000

and

3.00

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Should have double checked your math before buying No.

predicted YES

In retrospect I should not have bid this up so high, since the worlds where the underlying market resolves N/A are likely to be ones where Gurkenglas and Undox agree that I am not at +100 and in that case I cannot get to +100 without being dishonorable (which I do not believe myself to be). But I think I'm better off holding my shares in the expectation that this will resolve N/A than selling them off at a loss.

predicted YES

I guess it's not dishonorable to trade in that world, as long as I'm doing it in order to push my profit to M$100. So on reflection I feel good about my YES, as long as the "you are not at +M$100" statement doesn't come right before the market resolves.

@jfjurchen The current implementation of N/A rolls back all trading, which does not lock in a profit just because you've sold your position.

predicted YES

@Gurkenglas Neat!

So this resolves YES if I resolve the honorable market N/A but have no further activity on the underlying market, right?

@jfjurchen Indeed!

predicted NO

Assuming that you are currently at +100, which Undox would in this hypothetical presumably deny.

@Gurkenglas Is the +100 in this market's resolution criteria based on Undox's judgement, or yours?

Mine.

Okay, I guess that's good.

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