Jeremiah's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.67
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jeremiah bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the Kansas City Chiefs? 🏈 MNFYESṀ2,000
- Will the #4 Phoenix Suns win Game 2 of their First Round Series against the #5 Clippers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?YESṀ1,400
- Will the $1M vs 1BTC bet between @JamesMedlock and Balaji Srinivasan over hyperinflation go ahead?YESṀ1,200