Will Ron Desantis announce he is seeking the GOP nomination by the end of May
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1.5k
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resolved May 24
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Desantis announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States by June 1. Resolves NO if not.

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predicted YES

Anyone object to me resolving this? Technically the video announcement came last night from his wife because the Twitter announcement isn't going to be taped.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/us/politics/desantis-2024-presidential-bid.html

The Florida governor is expected to file paperwork declaring his candidacy on May 25, with a video likely to coincide with his official entrance.

bought Ṁ500 of YES
bought Ṁ0 of NO

@jack Technically that is to file, not to announce. @BTE said that if he files in May but announces in June, this will resolve no.

predicted YES

Correct. But I can't think of a single example of a presidential candidate filing before they announce in my experience - anyone able to compile a list so we can see what the rates are?

predicted YES

@jack @bingeworthy If that happens it’s because some staffer screwed up. This is why they are all recorded in advance.

predicted YES

@jack @bingeworthy looks like Tim Scott made this mistake today actually so maybe this market is a little bit too high? https://www.npr.org/2023/05/19/1177077948/tim-scott-president-2024-election

bought Ṁ271 of YES

Alright, boys, time to bet on the credibility of this report:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/desantis-announcement/index.html

@CadeMataya > Another source said about 100 hotel rooms have been reserved at the Four Seasons Hotel in Miami for the gathering.

I can just imagine a CNN reporter calling the four seasons asking about their room availability. "Hey just curious how many rooms do you have? Oh 300? And typically how booked up are you this time of year? Oh about one third?" (Furiously scribbles notes about 100 rooms booked for next week)

predicted NO

@PatrickDelaney “While I’ve got you on the phone, are you definitely a hotel rather than a landscaping company? We’ve made that mistake before…”

bought Ṁ5,000 of YES

@SimonGrayson "Oh and one more question, how many seasons does Miami really have? Four? Do you actually get snow down there or not really?"

predicted YES

@PatrickDelaney Of course Sir, this is Miami, there is cocaine everywhere. 🫠

What if he files paperwork but does not announce?

predicted YES

@PatrickDelaney I was wondering if anyone would ask that. So far all the candidates who have entered did both the same day because once you file its public and might as well be the announcement, but I agree there is a technical distinction. For this question to resolve YES he has to announce and file by the end of May. If he files May 31 and announces June 1 it will resolve NO.

predicted YES

@BTE what counts as an announcement? posted on twitter, on his website?

predicted YES

@SaulMunn Yes so far all candidates have announced via recorded videos posted on their site and YouTube.

predicted YES

@SaulMunn Not even Biden did a live announcement it was pre taped and heavily produced.

predicted YES

Damn it’s like an Orca pod in Maui trying to impress the potential mate. Whaling like whoa.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

To reiterate, he can now either ignore the law or decide not to run. Either seems highly unlikely. He therefore looks nearly certain to declare his candidacy by May 30.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/05/15/florida-gov-ron-desantis-prepares-2024-presidential-campaign.html

bought Ṁ0 of YES

For arbitrage

predicted YES

@NicoDelon Note that that market (my market) is a bit looser. If he announces that he’s running even without filing, that would still count for that market but not this market. That market also technically allows him to be seeking nomination for some party other than the GOP, but that shouldn’t be relevant.

predicted YES

@Gabrielle Good point. Though I don’t think the gap should be more than a couple of percentage points.