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Anyone object to me resolving this? Technically the video announcement came last night from his wife because the Twitter announcement isn't going to be taped.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/us/politics/desantis-2024-presidential-bid.html

The Florida governor is expected to file paperwork declaring his candidacy on May 25, with a video likely to coincide with his official entrance.

Polymarket is at 95%: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ron-desantis-file-to-run-for-president-by-may-31-2023

@jack Technically that is to file, not to announce. @BTE said that if he files in May but announces in June, this will resolve no.

Correct. But I can't think of a single example of a presidential candidate filing before they announce in my experience - anyone able to compile a list so we can see what the rates are?

@jack @bingeworthy If that happens it’s because some staffer screwed up. This is why they are all recorded in advance.

@jack @bingeworthy looks like Tim Scott made this mistake today actually so maybe this market is a little bit too high? https://www.npr.org/2023/05/19/1177077948/tim-scott-president-2024-election

Alright, boys, time to bet on the credibility of this report:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/desantis-announcement/index.html

@CadeMataya > Another source said about 100 hotel rooms have been reserved at the Four Seasons Hotel in Miami for the gathering.

I can just imagine a CNN reporter calling the four seasons asking about their room availability. "Hey just curious how many rooms do you have? Oh 300? And typically how booked up are you this time of year? Oh about one third?" (Furiously scribbles notes about 100 rooms booked for next week)

@PatrickDelaney “While I’ve got you on the phone, are you definitely a hotel rather than a landscaping company? We’ve made that mistake before…”

@SimonGrayson 🤣

@SimonGrayson "Oh and one more question, how many seasons does Miami really have? Four? Do you actually get snow down there or not really?"

@PatrickDelaney Of course Sir, this is Miami, there is cocaine everywhere. 🫠

What if he files paperwork but does not announce?

@PatrickDelaney I was wondering if anyone would ask that. So far all the candidates who have entered did both the same day because once you file its public and might as well be the announcement, but I agree there is a technical distinction. For this question to resolve YES he has to announce and file by the end of May. If he files May 31 and announces June 1 it will resolve NO.

@BTE what counts as an announcement? posted on twitter, on his website?

@SaulMunn Yes so far all candidates have announced via recorded videos posted on their site and YouTube.

@SaulMunn Not even Biden did a live announcement it was pre taped and heavily produced.

Damn it’s like an Orca pod in Maui trying to impress the potential mate. Whaling like whoa.

To reiterate, he can now either ignore the law or decide not to run. Either seems highly unlikely. He therefore looks nearly certain to declare his candidacy by May 30.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/05/15/florida-gov-ron-desantis-prepares-2024-presidential-campaign.html

For arbitrage

@NicoDelon Note that that market (my market) is a bit looser. If he announces that he’s running even without filing, that would still count for that market but not this market. That market also technically allows him to be seeking nomination for some party other than the GOP, but that shouldn’t be relevant.

@Gabrielle Good point. Though I don’t think the gap should be more than a couple of percentage points.