Resolves YES if Desantis announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States by June 1. Resolves NO if not.
🏅 Top traders
Anyone object to me resolving this? Technically the video announcement came last night from his wife because the Twitter announcement isn't going to be taped.
The Florida governor is expected to file paperwork declaring his candidacy on May 25, with a video likely to coincide with his official entrance.
Polymarket is at 95%: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ron-desantis-file-to-run-for-president-by-may-31-2023
@jack Technically that is to file, not to announce. @BTE said that if he files in May but announces in June, this will resolve no.
Correct. But I can't think of a single example of a presidential candidate filing before they announce in my experience - anyone able to compile a list so we can see what the rates are?
@jack @bingeworthy If that happens it’s because some staffer screwed up. This is why they are all recorded in advance.
@jack @bingeworthy looks like Tim Scott made this mistake today actually so maybe this market is a little bit too high? https://www.npr.org/2023/05/19/1177077948/tim-scott-president-2024-election
Alright, boys, time to bet on the credibility of this report:
@CadeMataya > Another source said about 100 hotel rooms have been reserved at the Four Seasons Hotel in Miami for the gathering.
I can just imagine a CNN reporter calling the four seasons asking about their room availability. "Hey just curious how many rooms do you have? Oh 300? And typically how booked up are you this time of year? Oh about one third?" (Furiously scribbles notes about 100 rooms booked for next week)
@PatrickDelaney “While I’ve got you on the phone, are you definitely a hotel rather than a landscaping company? We’ve made that mistake before…”
@SimonGrayson "Oh and one more question, how many seasons does Miami really have? Four? Do you actually get snow down there or not really?"
@PatrickDelaney Of course Sir, this is Miami, there is cocaine everywhere.
What if he files paperwork but does not announce?
@PatrickDelaney I was wondering if anyone would ask that. So far all the candidates who have entered did both the same day because once you file its public and might as well be the announcement, but I agree there is a technical distinction. For this question to resolve YES he has to announce and file by the end of May. If he files May 31 and announces June 1 it will resolve NO.
@SaulMunn Yes so far all candidates have announced via recorded videos posted on their site and YouTube.
@SaulMunn Not even Biden did a live announcement it was pre taped and heavily produced.
Damn it’s like an Orca pod in Maui trying to impress the potential mate. Whaling like whoa.
To reiterate, he can now either ignore the law or decide not to run. Either seems highly unlikely. He therefore looks nearly certain to declare his candidacy by May 30.
@NicoDelon Note that that market (my market) is a bit looser. If he announces that he’s running even without filing, that would still count for that market but not this market. That market also technically allows him to be seeking nomination for some party other than the GOP, but that shouldn’t be relevant.
@Gabrielle Good point. Though I don’t think the gap should be more than a couple of percentage points.
Apparently Florida law is going to force him to file his candidacy in the next 15 days at the latest. So watch out for the whales.
@BTE So we're pricing 35% for either
Doesn't run; or,
Files paperwork without announcing?
Both seem <10% to me lol. He will face massive opposition for (2) and he would miss his best chance if (1). Given Trump is already one term down, DeSantis can run, lose to Trump, have Trump win, and then still run in 4 years. There's no good reason he wouldn't at least run & start campaigning, even if it's to establish a base for the future.
He'll never have as much positive attention as he currently has. This market is mispriced imo and should be ~75%+. If I can find enough other positions to sell I'll pump it myself
"That move will require the not-yet-filed campaign to spend more than $5,000 and, under Federal Election Commission guidelines, when someone running for federal office spends more than $5,000, they are required to register, file financial reports and designate a principal campaign committee.
Functionally, the office move will require DeSantis to file paperwork with federal election officials within 15 days, thus acknowledging publicly for the first time that he is running for president. “
@Gen Option 3, just ignore the FEC rules.
But seems like good logic for YES, I agree.
@MartinRandall Not only that. There are reports he will declare around Memorial Day, it’s abundantly clear he’s getting ready to run, and it’s long been believed he would wait for the legislative session to end to declare.
@NicoDelon But I agree with @Gen. People should buy NO.
There's another possibility: the move that requires spending $5k could be delayed. I think that's the main chance of NO.
@NicoDelon lives in Florida too so I am using your bets as signal. Much easier to see this stuff coming locally.
@NicoDelon this seems to be blocked for me in Europe. Could you summarise?
@Fion says it could happen by Memorial Day and implies June at the latest.
Weirdly I’m blocked as well and it’s telling me that I can’t view it because I’m in the European Economic Area. I’m not sure I’d trust a news organisation who think that the UK is in the EEA!
@SimonGrayson I think it’s because News Nation is a subscription based TV channel limited to the US.
@BTE I assume you chose to showcase this market? I've added the corresponding subsidy; per the Showcase rules, please leave a comment about why you thought this market was worth featuring!
@ManifoldMarkets I made a comment and it disappeared when I tried to post it!
@ManifoldMarkets This market seeks to predict the decision of the only serious challenger to Trump for the GOP nomination. High stakes for such a young guy to take a risk at this point in his career, could go either way. Definitely a worthy showcase market.