Will Ron Desantis announce he is seeking the GOP nomination by the end of May
resolved May 24

Resolves YES if Desantis announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States by June 1. Resolves NO if not.

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BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 99.2%

Anyone object to me resolving this? Technically the video announcement came last night from his wife because the Twitter announcement isn't going to be taped.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 91%
AmmonLam avatar
Ammon Lam
jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ2,000 of YES


The Florida governor is expected to file paperwork declaring his candidacy on May 25, with a video likely to coincide with his official entrance.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ500 of YES
bingeworthy avatar
bingeworthybought Ṁ0 of NO

@jack Technically that is to file, not to announce. @BTE said that if he files in May but announces in June, this will resolve no.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 93%

Correct. But I can't think of a single example of a presidential candidate filing before they announce in my experience - anyone able to compile a list so we can see what the rates are?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 94%

@jack @bingeworthy If that happens it’s because some staffer screwed up. This is why they are all recorded in advance.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 94% (edited)

@jack @bingeworthy looks like Tim Scott made this mistake today actually so maybe this market is a little bit too high? https://www.npr.org/2023/05/19/1177077948/tim-scott-president-2024-election

CadeMataya avatar
Cade Matayabought Ṁ271 of YES

Alright, boys, time to bet on the credibility of this report:

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney

@CadeMataya > Another source said about 100 hotel rooms have been reserved at the Four Seasons Hotel in Miami for the gathering.

I can just imagine a CNN reporter calling the four seasons asking about their room availability. "Hey just curious how many rooms do you have? Oh 300? And typically how booked up are you this time of year? Oh about one third?" (Furiously scribbles notes about 100 rooms booked for next week)

SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Graysonpredicted NO at 90%

@PatrickDelaney “While I’ve got you on the phone, are you definitely a hotel rather than a landscaping company? We’ve made that mistake before…”

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ5,000 of YES
PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney

@SimonGrayson "Oh and one more question, how many seasons does Miami really have? Four? Do you actually get snow down there or not really?"

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 90% (edited)

@PatrickDelaney Of course Sir, this is Miami, there is cocaine everywhere. 🫠

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney

What if he files paperwork but does not announce?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 87%

@PatrickDelaney I was wondering if anyone would ask that. So far all the candidates who have entered did both the same day because once you file its public and might as well be the announcement, but I agree there is a technical distinction. For this question to resolve YES he has to announce and file by the end of May. If he files May 31 and announces June 1 it will resolve NO.

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munnpredicted YES at 85%

@BTE what counts as an announcement? posted on twitter, on his website?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 85%

@SaulMunn Yes so far all candidates have announced via recorded videos posted on their site and YouTube.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 85%

@SaulMunn Not even Biden did a live announcement it was pre taped and heavily produced.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 85%

Damn it’s like an Orca pod in Maui trying to impress the potential mate. Whaling like whoa.

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dbought Ṁ200 of YES

To reiterate, he can now either ignore the law or decide not to run. Either seems highly unlikely. He therefore looks nearly certain to declare his candidacy by May 30.


NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dbought Ṁ0 of YES

For arbitrage

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicted YES at 73%

@NicoDelon Note that that market (my market) is a bit looser. If he announces that he’s running even without filing, that would still count for that market but not this market. That market also technically allows him to be seeking nomination for some party other than the GOP, but that shouldn’t be relevant.

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dpredicted YES at 74%

@Gabrielle Good point. Though I don’t think the gap should be more than a couple of percentage points.

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted YES at 73%

Don't worry guys, buy NO!! He's going to run as a Dem

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Apparently Florida law is going to force him to file his candidacy in the next 15 days at the latest. So watch out for the whales.

TobyBW avatar

@BTE 15 days from the 15th to be exact.

Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ1,150 of YES

@BTE So we're pricing 35% for either

  1. Doesn't run; or,

  2. Files paperwork without announcing?

Both seem <10% to me lol. He will face massive opposition for (2) and he would miss his best chance if (1). Given Trump is already one term down, DeSantis can run, lose to Trump, have Trump win, and then still run in 4 years. There's no good reason he wouldn't at least run & start campaigning, even if it's to establish a base for the future.

He'll never have as much positive attention as he currently has. This market is mispriced imo and should be ~75%+. If I can find enough other positions to sell I'll pump it myself

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

@BTE Wait, why would he be forced in the next 15 days?

JoshuaB avatar
Joshuapredicted YES at 73% (edited)


"That move will require the not-yet-filed campaign to spend more than $5,000 and, under Federal Election Commission guidelines, when someone running for federal office spends more than $5,000, they are required to register, file financial reports and designate a principal campaign committee. 

Functionally, the office move will require DeSantis to file paperwork with federal election officials within 15 days, thus acknowledging publicly for the first time that he is running for president. “

- NBC News (from comment below)

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallpredicted NO at 73%

@Gen Option 3, just ignore the FEC rules.

But seems like good logic for YES, I agree.

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

@JoshuaB glad I closed my NO position then! Maybe DeSantis will go the cheap option with the move and do it for less than $5K (get a case of beer, a cheap UHaul rental, and some of his buddies)

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dpredicted YES at 73%

@MartinRandall Not only that. There are reports he will declare around Memorial Day, it’s abundantly clear he’s getting ready to run, and it’s long been believed he would wait for the legislative session to end to declare.

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dpredicted YES at 73%

@NicoDelon But I agree with @Gen. People should buy NO.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ0 of YES

There's another possibility: the move that requires spending $5k could be delayed. I think that's the main chance of NO.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 74%

@NicoDelon lives in Florida too so I am using your bets as signal. Much easier to see this stuff coming locally.

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted YES at 74%

@BTE I was actually facetiming Nico earlier and I saw big signs in the background that said "DemSantis" and big democrat logos all over the place. Definitely buy NO. This guy doesn't want the republican nomination !

Fion avatar
Fionpredicted YES at 35%

@NicoDelon this seems to be blocked for me in Europe. Could you summarise?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 35%

@Fion says it could happen by Memorial Day and implies June at the latest.

SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Graysonpredicted NO at 35%

Weirdly I’m blocked as well and it’s telling me that I can’t view it because I’m in the European Economic Area. I’m not sure I’d trust a news organisation who think that the UK is in the EEA!

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dbought Ṁ0 of YES

@SimonGrayson I think it’s because News Nation is a subscription based TV channel limited to the US.

ManifoldMarkets avatar
Manifold Markets

@BTE I assume you chose to showcase this market? I've added the corresponding subsidy; per the Showcase rules, please leave a comment about why you thought this market was worth featuring!

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 47%

@ManifoldMarkets I made a comment and it disappeared when I tried to post it!

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ100 of YES

@ManifoldMarkets This market seeks to predict the decision of the only serious challenger to Trump for the GOP nomination. High stakes for such a young guy to take a risk at this point in his career, could go either way. Definitely a worthy showcase market.

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