This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 70% probability.
My colleague Ian Millhiser listened to the oral arguments in the Students for Fair Admissions cases challenging affirmative action at both the University of North Carolina and Harvard, and left persuaded that explicit racial preferences for admission are a goner: “Even if one of the conservative justices who expressed some reservations today surprises us,” he wrote, “that would still likely leave five votes teed up against affirmative action.”
That makes sense. As Millhiser notes, there are six Republican appointees on the Court today, all by presidents opposed to affirmative action and all reared in a conservative legal movement where opposition to the policy is taken for granted. Even the most comparatively moderate of them, Chief Justice John Roberts, is famously hostile to considering race in attempts to address past discrimination.
The reason I’m not more confident is due to a nuance Millhiser noted, which is that Roberts appeared open to racial preferences at military academies, noting the federal government’s argument that the military needs a diverse officer corps to succeed. If such a carve-out is included in the ultimate ruling, my prediction here will be wrong: I’m predicting they’ll strike down affirmative action across the board at public or publicly funded institutions.
(Vox)
Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
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@jeremiahsamroo I don't know. Looks like @MarcusAbramovitch is selling shares, perhaps looking to reinvest elsewhere?
Just to be more explicit, I do think that "such a carve-out" was "included in the ultimate ruling" and thus the prediction that "they'll strike down affirmative action across the board at public or publicly funded institutions" was wrong by his own standards
This should still resolve to how Matthews/Vox grades their predictions at the end of the year though, however many people disagree
@jacksonpolack agree on both points as well, even tho I stand to lose a lot of mana from this
huh i have no idea why dylan would delete the original tweet. not sure what direction that even points in. it wasn't a mass wipe, he has undeleted tweets before it
actually it probably was part of an untargeted mass wipe, he only has like 6 undeleted tweets before it and then retweets from 2015 (presumably people who have blocked him so he/his bot can't see the RTs to delete them)