A bet is being formulated on Twitter between @JamesMedlock (Twitter: @jdcmedlock) and Balaji Srinivasan (Twitter: @balajis).

The bet is over whether bitcoin will be worth $1M in 90 days, with Medlock to pay Balaji 1 Bitcoin if it is, and Balaji to pay Medlock $1M if it isn't.

This is stated by Balaji to be a bet over hyperinflation - Balaji claims to imminently expect a large (>40×) devaluation of the US dollar, and for bitcoin to maintain its value.

Will the bet go ahead (and be honoured)? This market will resolve YES if the winner is actually paid their winnings at the end of the term in a manner consistent with the terms of the bet.

This market will resolve based on whether the spirit of the terms currently being formulated is followed, not the letter - for example if payout is diverted to charity at the recipient's request, or recipients crowdfund their stake, or some other asset is used to escrow the $1M instead of USDC, that will all be fine, as long as the outcome still largely resembles a bet over Bitcoin's value being greater than $1M or not, with stakes of of 1 BTC vs $1M.

Edit: The terms are different to what I initially thought, and so I have edited the description above, which originally stated that the bet was an agreement that Balaji would purcase 1 BTC from Medlock for $1M in 90 days. Instead, it looks like the winner will keep both the bitcoin and the $1M, and the bet is explicitly over whether the price of BTC is more than $1M at the end of the term. See the below tweet for this clarification.