The average percentage over time:

The average that would have been required over the remaining time period to flip the result, until it was determined:

RATIONALUSSY STANS, BET IN THIS MARKET:

I don't even make any money from this, but I'll buy 100 YES shares for you Levina.

What's the average percentage so far?

@firstuserhere YES is already mathematically guaranteed to win.

@JosephNoonan i was asking for the derivative markets asking by how much will one side win

@firstuserhere ~64%

@deagol more precisely:

current avg 0.64109

close projection (current 99.9% from now to close) 0.64383

max avg (100% from now to close) 0.64383

min (0% from now to close) 0.63612

@deagol thanks so much!

I haven't been paying any attention to this market, so forgive me for missing any twists or drama, but I'm laughing at @Botlab as the winner with M46k profit.

@Botlab needed a lot of help.

I NEED MORE SIMP POINTS

@ButtocksCocktoasten You should get more SIMP points by following Levina.

will this resolve early when it becomes mathematically impossible for NO to win?

@JonathanRay I think it already is

Whoops, forgot I still had a NO order

eyeballing the graph it loooks impossible for No to win now

@JonathanRay 0.91% lets go!

@deagol 0.7% now and zero in 30 min

@deagol ah wait someone’s buying NO 😂 @A

@deagol It's a good price, I gotta do it! 😀

@A 0.6 required, and hold till close

@deagol that’s 0.6%

@deagol Yeah that's not gonna happen lol, but for any YES holders who want to claim their profits now instead of waiting for close, I've put up some attractively priced limit orders to sell into.

OKAY EVERYONE, should I resolve this market N/A in the same spirit as https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-the-top-5-yes-holders-have-a-c

What do you think @Odoacre would that be fair, for example if I did that just now without asking anyone? Let's hear it guys 😊 @jack @JonathanRay @verdantnonsense

@levifinkelstein btw when (if?) is Levi returning back?

@firstuserhere

@firstuserhere closes april 30th

@levifinkelstein I'd rather you didn't. For one, whereas @Odoacre's was still in progress, this one is already just about over and done. So instead of precluding a competition, you're just undoing the results of one that already happened.

That would be very frustrating for me, as I already put a bunch of time and energy into this one to try to safeguard the value of the shares my bot picked up.

The admins could retroactively resolve every whalebait market NA if they wanted to. Cancelling this now would be very similar to that kind of retroactive cancellation, which I don't think is what many people want.

@MichaelWheatley Oh, you're just making a statement about what @Odoacre did. Okay, lol, as long as I don't get the rug pulled out from under me here.

@levifinkelstein you asking @Odoacre who has a loss here (albeit small)?

@MichaelWheatley Well you see I just really care about gambling addiction and think it would make a great statement if we resolved this market to N/A 😃 I was just so inspired by what Odoacore did

@MichaelWheatley FYI I'm currently standing to make a profit in this market according to

@levifinkelstein they could use this to compensate you

@levifinkelstein I don't see what good it would do to resolve this N/A, especially given that there's not much activity on it anymore, so not much potential for harm.

@JosephNoonan I'm all for resolving this as N/A. And see that as a public good! (/s)