Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?
resolved Oct 1

Background: https://archive.ph/2023.09.09-191732/https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-shutdown-what-does-it-mean-2023-09-08/

Resolves YES if Congress is unable to pass the bills or a Continuing Resolution prior to midnight September 30th

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predicted NO

This can be resolved to NO

bought Ṁ1,217 of YES

@KevinBurke Not a chance, buddy

predicted YES

@lucentbruce Wait no I just read the title, I'm an idiot

predicted NO

That's a big spike! here I was looking for what breaking news could possibly be responsible

bought Ṁ6,000 of NO

@HastingsGreer The breaking news would have to involve the creation of time travel

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry I should put in 99%/1% limit orders to exploit this sort of mistake.

predicted NO
predicted NO

@AviS please resolve this soon, leagues will end soon.

predicted YES

@zzlk The market is at 0% so resolving won't change your net worth, AFAIK

predicted NO

@RemiRampin but it denies you the opportunity to invest in other markets, and if you have a large position then it can't sell without a decent amount of slippage.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Bought in a tiny bit in case Biden signs after midnight

bought Ṁ700 of NO

@NikitaSokolsky It's always wise to bet on the sleepiness of Sleepy Joe

@SemioticRivalry 1 hour left... I was reading about the enrollment process and delivery to the president's desk. Are you thinking this won't happen in the next hour?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@parhizj I think there is definitely a greater than 5% chance of that, yes. I think it's interesting that there's been basically no time decay here.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Will this market resolve based on exactly what time the tweet about biden signing the bill is posted?

predicted NO

@Joshua I don't think so, it should resolve based on whether there's a government shutdown or not, not whether it gets tweeted or reported on before midnight.

So as long as Biden signs it before midnight I think that means there's no shutdown and so this should resolve no.


predicted NO

I think Jamaal Bowman had a YES bet that he really didn't want to lose🤣

predicted NO

It's fully passed in the senate now, just waiting on the white house.

predicted NO

@zzlk @AviS are you ready to resolve it when Joe signs it? Leagues are ending potentially very soon after midnight.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@zzlk How do you think it should be resolved if Biden signs it at 8am tomorrow morning?

predicted YES

@Domer Just imagining the headlines if there's a technical govt shutdown because "sleepy Joe" went to bed early.

predicted NO

@Domer I hope that doesn't happen. Joe is on standby right now waiting to sign it, so it should happen very soon, hopefully by midnight.

To answer your question, probably "yes".

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