Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?
17
93
Ṁ944Ṁ440
2028
93%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@thepurplebull They mean most industrialized countries. Most of Africa and South America don't but almost everywhere else it's legal. Hell even Italy and Ireland, two predominantly Christian countries now allow it.
@thepurplebull Sorry for the huge delay replying here. From the data I’ve seen, most countries agree on their abortion laws.
The US remains contentious because the structure of the states/system allows for the minority opinion to make political progress. Even in the US, most people agree on abortion
Related questions
Will Missouri legalize abortion in the 2024 election?
68% chance
In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?
34% chance
Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?
51% chance
Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2024 than in 2023, according to Gallup?
60% chance
Will a democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
51% chance
Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?
52% chance
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?
48% chance
How many Arizona voters will say that abortion was their top issue in the 2024 presidential election?
33% chance