In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?

Ṁ1kṀ14k

2029

70%

chance

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Each month, Gallup publishes a poll asking Americans "what do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?" If Gallup no longer conducts this poll (or an extremely similar one) in 2028, this market will resolve to N/A.

Otherwise, I will find the average (over the 12 months of 2028) of the displayed percentages for the category most specifically referencing abortion and the category most specifically referencing AI. For the current poll, I would consider the category "advancements of computers/technology" to be referencing AI. However, if there was an explicit "AI" option I would use that one instead.

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I could see this market resolving YES but in an Arrow type way, like:

1%: think AI is most important problem
0.5%: think abortion is most important problem
50%: think economy is most important problem, abortion 2nd most important, don't care about AI at all
48.5%: think racism is most important problem, abortion 2nd most important, don't care about AI at all

Do respondents to that poll give a free answer which Gallup then later categorizes? Or is it a fixed list?

If it's a fixed list, no AI option was provided as of the latest poll. If it's free response, then well under 1% responded "AI", since it doesn't show up.

Abortion does show up but as just 1%.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@pietrokc It's a free response. Not sure how they decide what categories to use but there has traditionally been an "advancement of computers/technology" category that was <0.5% until recently.