Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries?
Basic
108
11k
2028
46%
Nikki Haley
·
3mo
36%
Ron DeSantis
·
3mo
28%
Glenn Youngkin
·
3mo
25%
J. D. Vance
·
3mo
18%
Markwayne Mullin
·
3mo
18%
Josh Hawley
·
3mo
17%
Todd Young
·
3mo
16%
Tom Cotton
·
3mo
16%
Brian Kemp
·
3mo
16%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
·
3mo
16%
Franciz Suarez
·
3mo
16%
Chris Christie
·
3mo
16%
Tim Scott
·
3mo
15%
Mike Lee
·
3mo
15%
Kim Reynolds
·
3mo
15%
Ted Cruz
·
3mo
15%
Donald Trump Jr.
·
3mo
15%
Dan Crenshaw
·
3mo
15%
Joni Ernst
·
3mo
15%
Greg Abbott
·
3mo

An answer resolves YES if that person wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries. Otherwise the answer will resolve NO once all contests are over.

The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.

Nominating contests in places which are not states will not count for the purposes of this market (e.g. Washington D.C., American Samoa, etc.).

If there is a caucus in a state instead of a primary, or if there is more than one nominating contest (e.g. if there is a primary and a caucus) then nothing changes - the important factor is who wins the most delegates in that state.

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bought Ṁ70 Answer #8d21fade9e71 NO

Oh God a fourth Trump run is just too many

Recall Tulsi being a Democrat.

@RNe She left the party a while back I think

@Tripping If Wikipedia is accurate, then as of March 27, 2024 Tulsi Gabbard is an independent.

bought Ṁ2 Donald Trump Jr. NO

If there are no primaries, does this resolve N/A or NO on all choices?

@HarrisonNathan Most likely N/A, but the details will matter

@Tripping Ah, got to take my money out then. That's too likely an outcome.

@HarrisonNathan What do you think is likely to happen?

sold Ṁ2 Donald Trump Jr. NO

@Tripping I'd give it 90% odds that primaries happen, and in that case at least 80% odds one or two candidates take all the states, which is why I was betting against everyone. But 10% odds they cancel the primaries and nominate whoever Trump says to nominate.

@HarrisonNathan I feel like if Trump says to nominate someone they would still bother to go through the motions of the primaries, even in the world where it's reduced to a formality

@Tripping That's possible, but recall that he wanted to skip the primaries this time, and they nearly did it.

bought Ṁ20 Answer #224d31ee0fe2 NO

Almost every potential candidate is overvalued here IMO. It’s very unlikely that more than a couple people win a state, so having this many sitting at >10% seems too high

bought Ṁ3 Answer #8d21fade9e71 NO

@SunilOcara Plus Tulsi Gabbard isn't on the list.

@HarrisonNathan You can add her if you want

@Tripping It's not worth the mana. I added her as a choice to win the 2028 Presidential election, but people didn't trade her. https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-9a306926e237?r=SGFycmlzb25OYXRoYW4

There you go, I added her

Brian Kemp

Typo: this currently says "BRAIN Kemp" instead of "Brian Kemp"

@PaintspotInfez lol, nice catch

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