An answer resolves YES if that person wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries. Otherwise the answer will resolve NO once all contests are over.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
Nominating contests in places which are not states will not count for the purposes of this market (e.g. Washington D.C., American Samoa, etc.).
If there is a caucus in a state instead of a primary, or if there is more than one nominating contest (e.g. if there is a primary and a caucus) then nothing changes - the important factor is who wins the most delegates in that state.
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@Tripping I'd give it 90% odds that primaries happen, and in that case at least 80% odds one or two candidates take all the states, which is why I was betting against everyone. But 10% odds they cancel the primaries and nominate whoever Trump says to nominate.
@HarrisonNathan I feel like if Trump says to nominate someone they would still bother to go through the motions of the primaries, even in the world where it's reduced to a formality
@Tripping That's possible, but recall that he wanted to skip the primaries this time, and they nearly did it.
@Tripping It's not worth the mana. I added her as a choice to win the 2028 Presidential election, but people didn't trade her. https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-9a306926e237?r=SGFycmlzb25OYXRoYW4