An answer resolves YES if that person wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries. Otherwise the answer will resolve NO once all contests are over.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the DNC's official statements.
Nominating contests in places which are not states will not count for the purposes of this market (e.g. Washington D.C., American Samoa, etc.).
If there is a caucus in a state instead of a primary, or if there is more than one nominating contest (e.g. if there is a primary and a caucus) then nothing changes - the important factor is who wins the most delegates in that state.
People are also trading
Harris's prob jumped when she became nominee but none of the other probabilities fell? There became a 50% chance Harris would be the only one winning any state. Tried to get the probs to better reflect that.
Why is Kamala not near 100%?
Winning a state is hard! Most people drop out before voting starts. I think buying NO on all of these is plus ev as they say