Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?

115

10kṀ28k

2028

48%

Gavin Newsom

31%

Pete Buttigieg

24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

22%

Josh Shapiro

20%

Cory Booker

16%

Gretchen Whitmer

16%

Kamala Harris

14%

J. B. Pritzker

10%

Amy Klobuchar

10%

Jon Ossoff

Raphael Warnock

Chris Murphy

Tim Walz

Gina Raimondo

Deval Patrick

Andy Beshear

Steve Bullock

Mark Kelly

Abigail Spanberger

Jared Polis

An answer resolves YES if that person wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries. Otherwise the answer will resolve NO once all contests are over.

The source of the official delegate count will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the DNC's official statements.

Nominating contests in places which are not states will not count for the purposes of this market (e.g. Washington D.C., American Samoa, etc.).

If there is a caucus in a state instead of a primary, or if there is more than one nominating contest (e.g. if there is a primary and a caucus) then nothing changes - the important factor is who wins the most delegates in that state.

Politics

US Politics

Democratic Party

2028 US presidential election

2028 Presidential Primaries

Can Candidate Win State/s?

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Harris's prob jumped when she became nominee but none of the other probabilities fell? There became a 50% chance Harris would be the only one winning any state. Tried to get the probs to better reflect that.