Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?
Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?
112
10kṀ27k
2028
36%
Gavin Newsom
32%
Pete Buttigieg
27%
Josh Shapiro
25%
Cory Booker
20%
Gretchen Whitmer
18%
J. B. Pritzker
15%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
12%
Amy Klobuchar
12%
Raphael Warnock
11%
Gina Raimondo
11%
Deval Patrick
11%
Kamala Harris
10%
Jared Polis
10%
Tim Walz
9%
Martin O'Malley
9%
Katie Hobbs
9%
Maura Healey
8%
Mark Kelly
8%
Andy Beshear
8%
Chris Murphy

An answer resolves YES if that person wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries. Otherwise the answer will resolve NO once all contests are over.

The source of the official delegate count will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the DNC's official statements.

Nominating contests in places which are not states will not count for the purposes of this market (e.g. Washington D.C., American Samoa, etc.).

If there is a caucus in a state instead of a primary, or if there is more than one nominating contest (e.g. if there is a primary and a caucus) then nothing changes - the important factor is who wins the most delegates in that state.

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9mo

Harris's prob jumped when she became nominee but none of the other probabilities fell? There became a 50% chance Harris would be the only one winning any state. Tried to get the probs to better reflect that.

Why is Kamala not near 100%?

11mo

Nvm lol

bought Ṁ20 NO11mo

if she loses this election will she really contest again in 2028?

11mo

Misread this market as being for 2024, that makes sense

bought Ṁ10 NO1y

Winning a state is hard! Most people drop out before voting starts. I think buying NO on all of these is plus ev as they say

bought Ṁ20 NO1y

@AndrewG Ain't no way Wayne Messam's campaign would get off the ground. Does anyone even remember his 2020 bid?

1y

Duplicate! Did you get all your mana back? @houstonEuler

1y

@Tripping Based on your balance log you only got 10M back, so I sent you 15M to cover the loss

1y

@Tripping Sorry, I thought I looked through all of them and didn't see him. Thanks!

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