Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?
75
395
10K
2028
41%
Gavin Newsom
33%
Pete Buttigieg
25%
J. B. Pritzker
20%
Kamala Harris
13%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
11%
Raphael Warnock
10%
Josh Shapiro
10%
Roy Cooper
9%
Amy Klobuchar
9%
Gretchen Whitmer
9%
Tim Walz
9%
Catherine Cortez Masto
9%
Tina Kotek
9%
Katie Hobbs
9%
Maura Healey
9%
Cory Booker
8%
Ro Khanna
7%
Tim Kaine
7%
Kirsten Gillibrand
5%
Jared Polis

An answer resolves YES if that person wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries. Otherwise the answer will resolve NO once all contests are over.

The source of the official delegate count will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the DNC's official statements.

Nominating contests in places which are not states will not count for the purposes of this market (e.g. Washington D.C., American Samoa, etc.).

If there is a caucus in a state instead of a primary, or if there is more than one nominating contest (e.g. if there is a primary and a caucus) then nothing changes - the important factor is who wins the most delegates in that state.

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bought Ṁ10 Ro Khanna NO

Winning a state is hard! Most people drop out before voting starts. I think buying NO on all of these is plus ev as they say

bought Ṁ20 Wayne Messam NO

@AndrewG Ain't no way Wayne Messam's campaign would get off the ground. Does anyone even remember his 2020 bid?

J.B. Pritzker

Duplicate! Did you get all your mana back? @houstonEuler

@Tripping Based on your balance log you only got 10M back, so I sent you 15M to cover the loss

@Tripping Sorry, I thought I looked through all of them and didn't see him. Thanks!

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