What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before May 1st? [ADD YOUR OWN]
May 1
A photo of himself with Narendra Modi
Taylor Swift
Tucker Carlson
Sam Altman
Jimmy Carter
Roman Empire
Lex Fridman
Bill Gates
Any primary or caucus
Benjamin Netanyahu
Migrant-borne disease
Literally "420" in any context
A distracted boyfriend meme [see comments]
Literally "69" in any context

Whatever Musk tweets or reposts, including reposts (the content directly visible in the repost and videos without opening a thread) after market creation, counts. Whatever is visible under "Posts" on his page, even if deleted later, also counts. Replies, etc., do not count.

  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason, especially low value answers (i.e. "Tesla" or "United States") according to my judgement. Please ask beforehand. [payments for submissions won't be returned]

  • Maximum of 10 submissions/user

Resolution criteria

  • I'll be fairly relaxed, but it should be clear and obvious. I.e. if he tweets "the president does[...]," Joe Biden would resolve to yes. However, "Obamacare" won't resolve "Obama." "Transgender" isn't enough to resolve "LGBT," but "LGBTQIA+" and "transgender, [...] homosexuals and bisexuals" would resolve "LGBT." If you need more examples, please feel free to ask.

  • I'll use my own judgment and might seek input from mods in unclear cases or decide to N/A.

  • I won't bet in this market. [expect M$1 to push certain answers in the ranking]

  • The question closes on May 1st at 0:00 PST. Any submissions without proof by May 2nd at 0:00 PST will be resolved as NO.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Only original posts and reposts are considered for this question. Replies do not count.

The official Manifold X / Twitter Dashboard

Javier Milei
bought Ṁ255 Javier Milei YES

Elon is scheduled to meet Milei in Texas on April 16

Literally "hardcore"

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen Elon Musk: AI, Space, X, Mars, speed and hardcore

Is AI here enough to settle AGI?

@ChristopherRandles No, AI is far too general for AGI. (He speaks quite often about AI. It has to be obvious AGI and not AI.)

It doesn't appear "hardcore" to me in the post, both on my smartphone and on my laptop. Only if I click on the Apple link, so I am not inclined to resolve it yet. However, if you post a screenshot, I'll look further into it and may resolve.

@Lion I thought hardco... would likely be sufficient as what else could it be. If different people have different width screens someone somewhere presumably sees it all.

The podcast was talking about AI smarter than any one person and even than all humans. I don't think it gets much more general than that but of course you have to open the podcast to see that.

Ah there may be misunderstanding here. Last time I thought something wouldn't qualify as I had to click 'show more' which opens the post but you said it did qualify. So I assumed you were taking a different meaning such that opening the post was ok as opposed to opening the thread. But maybe opening the reposted post is not allowed and you had some settings which avoided the 'show more'.

@ChristopherRandles Thanks, I think I'm going to N/A this one if it's displayed differently for different users.

In general, I'm not very satisfied with all of my rules regarding this market and will open a feedback thread for future markets when I have time (probably in a few days). However, this market pertains to what he tweets on X, not what he says in podcasts. [I haven't listened to it yet.] I won't resolve the AGI one based on this repost.

I resolve this as YES based on this repost (as shown in Chrome and in the app), but I amn't happy with the resolution or the rules regarding these type of submissions.




Solar Power (After 7 April 2024 Master plan tweet)

We're getting there 👀 -> Roman Empire

@Lion very funny that Elon won't link their handle after they bodied him last year

Being against depopulation is inferred in this comment.

@AGG Thanks 👍

Robots, Robotics, Optimus, or other topics related to humanoid robots

@HWH the topic "humanoid robots" has already been creted by @shankypanky. (see linked comment) Therefore I N/Aed your submission.

Simulation hypothesis

Elon just says "yeah" to a tweet he quotes which includes
If I could ask one favor from our simulation architect, it would be to level up humanity’s BS detector.

But this is hidden rather than displayed.

It is also quite likely Elon's "Yeah" is about
"critical humanity develop some sort of evolved information immune system" rather than the simulation hypothesis tacked on bit in the post.

So I presume this isn't enough to resolve this, but wondering if both of these preclude resolving simulation hypothesis or how such issues are considered.

@ChristopherRandles This is sufficient to resolve, according to the description: "Whatever Musk tweets or reposts, including reposts (the content directly visible in the repost and videos without opening a thread)." Penny2x clearly addresses it by discussing "our simulation architect," and since Musk shared it, it counts. It isn't hidden in a thread, comment, or elsewhere. It is directly part of the quoted tweet. Thanks for sharing 👍

bought Ṁ2,000 Transgenderism YES

@traders There are many good new submissions with very few or no traders on them, so I thought I'd give them some spotlight and would like to encourage you to trade on them.

Since Manifold no longer sends notifications for new submissions, I've set the default to "New" and temporarily closed the market for new submissions.

[I'll reopen and change the default setting back to "Trending" in a few days.]

edit: Back to normal, notifications are now being sent out for new submissions. 🥳

Ukraine (anything about peace deal, negotiations, war comments)
bought Ṁ100 Ukraine (anything ab... YES
bought Ṁ20 Ukraine (anything ab... NO

@MichaelVoss That is a reply which doesn't count right?

@Lion eek - I've got to stop distractedly betting based on notifications 😂

@shankypanky Or you could proof the proof. Or turn off your notifications. Or rejoin the cult. I suport the last one 🧡

@Lion I think you know you left a particular option off the list here

@shankypanky O, I thought the last one was the particular option. I told you that I'd join. I didn't refer to the soup cult. btw, she loved your soup 🧡 and was disappointed that I haven't made more. [She even said that it was better than my appetizer, but tss... I'm ignoring that]

@Lion ohh the seal of approval 🧡

(not sure what your appetizer was but you can probably just blame it on preference for her favourite colour if it keeps the peace)

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