Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ2.2kṀ8.1k

2030

ALL

64%

In 2026, AI be as big a political issue as abortion

81%

In 2027, AI be as big a political issue as abortion

89%

In 2028, AI be as big a political issue as abortion

Will resolve at the end of each year according to Scott's original resolution:

I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

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I'm leaning towards NO for 2025:

https://reproductivefreedomforall.org/news/memo-exit-polls-show-abortion-played-a-crucial-role-in-2025-election-victories/
- "In both New Jersey and Virginia, abortion-related ads still account for roughly one in six dollars spent on TV"
https://data.blueroseresearch.org/hubfs/%5BBRR%5D%20AI%20Is%20Colliding%20With%20America%E2%80%99s%20Affordability%20Crisis-1.pdf
- AI rose the most in importance in 2026 over 2025, and is currently only slightly ahead of abortion, indicating that AI was probably lower in 2025 (especially since there's been a lot of news about AI in just the first few months of 2026).

@Gabrielle Agree, 2025 is a strong NO

@Gabrielle Keep in mind that we only ask for "as big", and "importance to voters" is one way to look at this (there's also media attention, Dollars spent for lobbying, etc.).

If 2025 is a No, it's not a particulaty strong one imho.

Thanks for taking over the market!