Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
55
2.2kαΉ72052030
1%
In 2024, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
17%
In 2025, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
45%
In 2026, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
66%
In 2027, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
80%
In 2028, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
Will resolve at the end of each year according to Scott's original resolution:
I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?
45% chance
Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?
67% chance
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
65% chance
In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?
60% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy be an explicitly partisan political issue before 2030 π€πΊπΈβοΈπ»
73% chance
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]
50% chance
Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?
90% chance
In 2028, will geoengineering be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
12% chance
Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
70% chance
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
61% chance