Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
51
2.2kαΉ67892030
1%
In 2024, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
21%
In 2025, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
40%
In 2026, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
57%
In 2027, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
63%
In 2028, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
Will resolve at the end of each year according to Scott's original resolution:
I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold?
Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?
44% chance
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
65% chance
In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?
55% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy be an explicitly partisan political issue before 2030 π€πΊπΈβοΈπ»
70% chance
In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks?
Will the sentience or consciousness of AI become a left/right culture war issue before 2026?
10% chance
Will AI-related news in 2025 have a bigger media impact than covid19-related news had in 2020?
15% chance
Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?
93% chance
In 2028, will geoengineering be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
11% chance