Manifold announced that it will pivot to real money (to take effect on May 15) and I'm pessimistic about it. Will my pessimism hold up? This may or may not be my final market.

Resolves YES if this market still exists and any of the following occur by June 19, 2024:

• Manifold Markets, Inc. (the company) goes bankrupt or officially ceases to exist

• No one works for Manifold

• The official Manifold website (currently manifold.markets) goes down or becomes completely unusable (ie it's impossible to create, bet on, or resolve markets), even briefly

• The number of active Manifolders drops by at least half compared to pre-pivot levels (i.e. using 7-day averaged DAUs for https://manifold.markets/stats, since pre-pivot DAUs was ~1500, this criterion will activate if 7-day averaged DAUs is below 750)

Resolves NO if this market still exists and none of the listed things happen.

(Juneteenth was an arbitrarily selected date selected for being somewhat nearby in the future.)