Active users
An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.
22k yesterday; 15k avg last week
Active traders
An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
1065 yesterday; 1039 avg last week
Retention
What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?
New user retention
What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
Daily activity
Activation rate
Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
D1 average new user bets
On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?
Ratio of Active Users
Total mana bet
Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
Home feed conversion rate
Interactions/views
,
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Top markets yesterday
Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.
Most traders
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?
188
9%
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
133
NO
Most views
Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?
2001
9%
Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date
690
Claude Sonnet 5 Prop Bets
411
What’s true of Kamala HQ’s Big Announcement? Short Fuse, Read Desc
335
Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
320
Will a new Claude Opus model be released in February 2026?
234
YES
Will the US strike Iran by the end of February?
213
34%
Claude Opus 4.6 released this week?
194
YES
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
188
Will any one of the ICE members involved in the shooting of Alex Pretti face any consequences at all?
176
31%