Active users
An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.
24k yesterday; 22k avg last week
Active traders
An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
769 yesterday; 792 avg last week
Retention
What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?
New user retention
What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
Daily activity
Identity Verifications
Daily identity verification attempts and their outcomes.
Activation rate
Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
D1 average new user bets
On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?
Ratio of Active Users
Total mana bet
Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
Home feed conversion rate
Interactions/views
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Top markets yesterday
Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.
Most traders
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
133
NO
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
131
YES
Most views
Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?
407
53%
Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026?
245
67%
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
199
YES
Which team will win the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
124
F1 2026 Prop Bets Hungary (Hungaroring) ๐ญ๐บ Grand Prix [LIVE, Add answers]
111
F1: Who will win the 2026 AWS Hungarian Grand Prix?
109
Will the perpetrator of the attack on CSD Berlin 2026 be caught within two weeks?
87
YES
Will twitter / x.com be open source before September?
70
16%
If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
70
26%
How many jobs will I apply to this week?
69
70.0