Active users
An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.
18k yesterday; 20k avg last week
Active traders
An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
1079 yesterday; 1023 avg last week
Retention
What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?
New user retention
What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
Daily activity
Activation rate
Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
D1 average new user bets
On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?
Ratio of Active Users
Total mana bet
Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
Home feed conversion rate
Interactions/views
,
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Top markets yesterday
Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.
Most traders
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?
174
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
State of the Union Address 2026
166
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Most views
State of the Union Address 2026
1495
Will a famous person bet on this market?
556
73%
Will the US strike Iran by the end of February?
314
14%
When will Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be solved?
266
What is the top fast food chain?
265
Will OpenAI release a model named GPT 5.3 by the end of February?
192
26%
Graham Platner and James Talarico both win their primaries?
180
62%
Which party will win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
165
Who Will win the 2026 Texas Senate Seat Democratic Primary?
147
What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?
140