Active users
An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.
12k yesterday; 14k avg last week
Active traders
An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
1038 yesterday; 1339 avg last week
Retention
What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?
New user retention
What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
Daily activity
Activation rate
Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
D1 average new user bets
On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?
Ratio of Active Users
Total mana bet
Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
Home feed conversion rate
Interactions/views
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Top markets yesterday
Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.
Most traders
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
133
NO
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
131
YES
Most views
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
674
30%
How will the U.S. take Greenland?
443
Strikes on Iranian regime by 2026-01-16?
431
3%
Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by January 31, 2026?
294
31%
Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
274
25%
Which manifold user is the Predictle GOAT? [TRIAL BY COMBAT]
245
S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?
179
2%
DISCUSSION THREAD / What is the correct approach to @bens puzzle? (Round 3)
159
Will users breaking the community guidelines for 'bonuses' be punished before the end of January 2026?
150
2%