Active users
An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.
16k yesterday; 41k avg last week
Active traders
An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
377 yesterday; 639 avg last week
Retention
What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?
New user retention
What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
Daily activity
Identity Verifications
Daily identity verification attempts and their outcomes.
Activation rate
Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
D1 average new user bets
On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?
Ratio of Active Users
Total mana bet
Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
Home feed conversion rate
Interactions/views
,
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Top markets yesterday
Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.
Most traders
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
226
19%
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
133
NO
Most views
AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
445
14%
AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
347
26%
Bitcoin price (USD)
192
79,849.54
What will be the worst thing to go wrong at my wedding? [Add answers]
167
Fable 5.1 VS Astra: Which will I find better?
153
Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
153
30%
Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026
149
YES
Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?
131
39%
Rogue AIs before 2028?
118
69%
If Navier-Stokes is solved by Claude this year, what will be its solution?
96