How will Manifold die?
56
1.2ká¹€3125
3069
18%
Manifold is eternal
15%
Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable
15%
They go bankrupt
11%
As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)
9%
Other
7%
Shut down by the U.S. federal government
6%
with thunderous applause
4%
Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website
3%
Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.
2%
Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death
2%
People lose interest in it and stop using the site
1.3%
Not with a bang but a whimper
1%
Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance

this market never resolves 😤

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