How will Manifold die?
They go bankrupt
Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.
People lose interest in it and stop using the site
Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website
Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death

this market never resolves ๐Ÿ˜ค

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Why is "As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)" at 0.8% when AI doom by 2030 is still at 10%?

@DavidBolin Because in this market, the plausible short-term gains to AI self-sufficiency aren't being inflated by borderline-magical amounts.

@DavidBolin because the AIs might keep Manifold around

I feel like "regulators either A OR B" should be two separate answer choices

@ShadowyZephyr For my answer, I figured either having most of the value ruined by regulatory demands, or being outright shut down, would be thematically similar-enough to make a "bucket". But it could be interesting to have them as different answers.

Great market idea. The general concept of using markets to predict bad futures to avoid them deserves its own term: maybe "via negativa futarchy" or "malfutarchy".

@SG malarchy

Data and code is open right? If it's going to fire I'll scrape it and run it myself. Dev would be slow but running it with no/slow development should be fairly cheap right?

we still got like 2 years of runway so no need to worry. I personally think clones would be cool. probably will be easier once we move off firebase (which I'm tackling rn)

@StrayClimb The chance of Manifold truly dying is actually extremely low. Even in the worst case where Manifold no longer seems like a viable business prospect, we cease active development, put the site in maintenance/low cost mode, and subsist off of user and EA donations. I personally will ensure that it lives on.

And, of course, the best case still is within reach... /SG/will-manifold-ipo-by-2030

That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons even death may die.