Website is still online with more than 1% of its current (2023) users or some comparable meaningful sense of "being around".
Wait, is this 1% of its DAUs or is it the specific people who are currently using the site?
@MartinRandall I think it has to be DAUs, that's a meaningful sense of "being around".
Huh, I guess I care more about the current questions and whether they are still being resolved in a reasonable way than I do about the current users.
If website hosts something else such as tiktok like videos and has nothing to do with prediction markets but is still around with even the current devs and userbase, would be consider it to be still around?
No point in betting on manifold staying around, you won't get mana if you bet no. We should bet if Metaculus stays around and in return they can forcast if manifold will stay around.
I'm assuming that the AIs using the site after all humans are killed will count themselves as meaningful users.
I'd like to take this opportunity to say hello to myself 20 years in the future seeing this market resolve.