Hello! I found this https://trading.biz/forecast/btc-to-usd link while reading a forum thread about Bitcoin volatility. I was curious about upcoming BTC trends but felt overwhelmed by conflicting predictions elsewhere. The page laid out short- and mid-term forecasts in a way I could follow easily. I tried a couple of cautious trades based on the insights, and surprisingly, they worked out better than I expected. It’s nice to feel like I’m making informed choices instead of guessing every time.

"Current users" meaning the specific people, or this number of people?

Wait, is this 1% of its DAUs or is it the specific people who are currently using the site?

@MartinRandall I think it has to be DAUs, that's a meaningful sense of "being around".

@MichaelWheatley I added a limit NO for you at 70% if you want to sell more.

Huh, I guess I care more about the current questions and whether they are still being resolved in a reasonable way than I do about the current users.

If website hosts something else such as tiktok like videos and has nothing to do with prediction markets but is still around with even the current devs and userbase, would be consider it to be still around?

No point in betting on manifold staying around, you won't get mana if you bet no. We should bet if Metaculus stays around and in return they can forcast if manifold will stay around.

Close date should probably not be 2100

I'm assuming that the AIs using the site after all humans are killed will count themselves as meaningful users.

This is like the opposite of the ai doom markets

No correlated risks here folks

It's not like I'll miss the mana if it isn't

@Tetra The risk would be the site being renamed and people saying that means it stopped existing, like they said about Twitter.

I'd like to take this opportunity to say hello to myself 20 years in the future seeing this market resolve.

@Joshua Same here!