Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?
Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?
79
1.4kṀ11k
2043
55%
chance

Website is still online with more than 1% of its current (2023) users or some comparable meaningful sense of "being around".

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
11mo
1y

"Current users" meaning the specific people, or this number of people?

predictedYES 1y

Wait, is this 1% of its DAUs or is it the specific people who are currently using the site?

predictedYES 1y

@MartinRandall I think it has to be DAUs, that's a meaningful sense of "being around".

Michael WheatleysoldṀ395NO
1y

@MichaelWheatley I added a limit NO for you at 70% if you want to sell more.

1y

Huh, I guess I care more about the current questions and whether they are still being resolved in a reasonable way than I do about the current users.

1y

If website hosts something else such as tiktok like videos and has nothing to do with prediction markets but is still around with even the current devs and userbase, would be consider it to be still around?

1y

No point in betting on manifold staying around, you won't get mana if you bet no. We should bet if Metaculus stays around and in return they can forcast if manifold will stay around.

predictedYES 1y

Close date should probably not be 2100

1y

I'm assuming that the AIs using the site after all humans are killed will count themselves as meaningful users.

1y

This is like the opposite of the ai doom markets

1y

No correlated risks here folks

1y

It's not like I'll miss the mana if it isn't

1y

@Tetra The risk would be the site being renamed and people saying that means it stopped existing, like they said about Twitter.

1y

I'd like to take this opportunity to say hello to myself 20 years in the future seeing this market resolve.

1y

@Joshua Same here!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules