How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

@jacksonpolack nah, i held so much NO for so long. But unfortunately I must sell to liquidate as I'm out of mana and this market was where I could pull out from without heavy losses (thanks to @MichaelWheatley 's limit order)

predicts LOWER

I mean... betting on him living to 103 is basically betting he's discovered > 1 decade's worth of meaningful longevity secrets, no? Because even someone of his wealth and health shouldn't live on average more than ~90 years, even extrapolating fairly optimistic future trends on lifespan.

predicts HIGHER

@BenjaminShindel Dude, by the time he’s 90, it’s 2070s. We’ll be either all immortal or dead.

predicts LOWER

@AntonMakiievskyi Umm, feel free to make a market for that! Happy to bet against you there :)

predicts LOWER

@BenjaminShindel That's fine, let ppl who want to believe his scientific PR campaign believe it. My qualm is this market closes in 2084 so it's really not worthwhile to bet lower as I'm throwing away money.

predicts HIGHER

@AgoLajko nah. first of all, you get all of mana back as a loan in 50 days (2% per day). and also, you can sell your shares at any moment, so if market shifts to the side you predicted - you don't need to wait until resolution to get your mana+profits back

bought Ṁ111 of LOWER

@AntonMakiievskyi correction, the loans changed to 4©

predicts HIGHER

@AntonMakiievskyi Why is the market closing in 2084?

predicts HIGHER

@Simon74fe I didn't know what date to choose, and chose some random year far into the future

bought Ṁ51 of HIGHER

Here is my very simple model for his life expectancy:
Super-rich men: 90
Plus continuing trend of generally increased life expectancy due to medical progress: 95
Plus super healthy lifestyle: 100+?
Plus medical progress aided by future AI/AGI: ++?

Why are some people betting NO at around 100 years?
Is there something off with this model?
Or do you think there's a significant chance that his more speculative interventions could be net harmful?

@Simon74fe Most of these are overlapping with each other and should not be counted separately

bought Ṁ50 of HIGHER

@AntonMakiievskyi What happens to this market if he hasn't yet died by the time he is 1000 years old? Will it resolve to 1000?

predicts HIGHER

@Simon74fe Good question. I'll reconsider it in 2900s

predicts HIGHER

@Simon74fe in seriousness, I believe that according to description it shouldn't be resolved at age 1000 if he is still alive, same as at any other age. Even if humans become immortal - there is always a suicide possibility

predicts HIGHER

@AntonMakiievskyi It seems the market can't resolve to higher than 1000? So if humans become practically immortal we would have to wait until someday it resolves to either 1000, or to N/A?

bought Ṁ100 of LOWER

I have a feeling that one of the more cutting edge health tech innovations will have adverse side effects that may even render a lower than average lifespan.

bought Ṁ30 of HIGHER

Do all diseases count? A future pandemic seems like a significant risk. I'd suggest not counting contagious diseases beyond some threshold of deadliness (e.g. if it's deadlier than covid). I think it's still fine to make this change/clarification at this point.