πŸ‘πŸ‘Ž Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
431
10kαΉ€930k
2525
54%
chance
Bet on love
Increased Creation Costs
Profile & Portfolio merged
Manifold.Love sunset
New Numeric market type
Browse ui update, color fill binary mc markets
Austin leaves Manifold team
1-99 bet limit on some markets
Mana economy changes
New mana USD prices
Mana transaction fees enabled
Pivot announcement
Pivot update delaying changes
Updated portfolio graphs
NA ability removed
Night before pivot selloff
Pivot: Spice/Points added, Mana devalued, Market cost changed
Creators earn 100% fee up to 1000
Higher question tiers
Play/Mini tier and expanded mc options
Manifest ends
Quick limit order buttons
Sum to 1 MC markets limited to 1-99%
paginated multi choice markets
James leaves to focus on Manicode
Sweepcash launch
Mana trader bonus returns
Txn fees removed
Re-enable ability to NA markets
Up/Down votes on comments
Mana loan system reintroduced
Boosts removed
Sweepcash fee changes
Market order liquidity change
Betting buttons/slider changes (again)
Slippage protection toggle
Pivot Back to Mana! Spice/Sweepcash removed!
Poll cost back down to 10M
numeric markets added (again)
New movement notifications & new user badge
New trades page

Use mana to let the team know what you think about how they're running the website. 100% means everyone is happy with the direction Manifold is going and the team behind it, and 0% means something has probably gone tragically wrong.

  • Does not impact profit rankings

  • You get your mana back through loans over time

  • Permanently open market, will not resolve.

Other Approval Ratings:

/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating

/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb

/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-d7689b01293f

/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-da311ac4ea95

Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

I miss the old loan system, where loans were sizable, and accrued over time without daily sign ins as an incentive to check after a few days of inactivity.

@DanW Or what if they simply paid interest on all shares held and mana, just like Kalshi does!

Ian keeps renaming active creators' perfectly fine market titles

new trades page on desktop too

bought αΉ€50 NO

Ye gods, what has happened to the "trades" page on mobile? All the functionality I used to use has gone or requires more clicks

this is entirely unhelpful

@Robincvgr yeah unsure what this is for. Short ambiguous titles to be like poly market is what I am trying to avoid

@strutheo

it will suggest pointlessly removing words from already very concise titles, and i dislike it.

additionally, i generally resent software features where you tell the software "i want to do X" and it goes "do you actually want to do Y"

@Robincvgr I’m not sure why they started pushing this feature and short titles when the general opinion was against it. What is the intended benefit?

@Robincvgr

I had 4o reword the titles in the concise manner by uploading a screenshot and giving it the prompt I give for that endpoint. I think it makes the homepage cleaner! I wish our market titles had fewer extraneous words in them (without changing the meaning of the question, ofc).

before:

after:

@ian I'm with Robin, Chris, and Rhino.

I think your first screenshot is more readable than the second.

@ian I strongly prefer the former screenshot

@ian at a glance, this one is a pretty substantial shift in meaning: "...will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt" -> "full high quality AI movie generator by..."

the fact that you need to be able to give an AI a single prompt and generate a whole film is kinda the crux of the question, any sort of "AI movie generator" that can, with some level of effort/management, eventually output a high quality movie is a far lower bar.

yea the content on this website is much more like twitter with varying sizes of titles its not easy to bring uniformity into the length beyond character limits...

I generally prefer longer titles and shorter descriptions.

@ian Why'd you try to change the title of the Canada market?

bought αΉ€50 NO

@bagelfan it's one thing to nudge uses who are about to create a market to follow your aesthetic preferences, but changing the name of an existing market, especially such a large one, without asking the market creator first, doesn't seem right.

@Fion if you're right that truncated titles are better, they'll win out in the marketplace of markets. Let creators word it how they like and let traders choose the markets that appeal to them the most.

@ian You also changed the title of this market. It doesn’t even have proper punctuation now

bought αΉ€10 NO

@ian Why are you doing this?

Poll:

Changing the titles of existing markets in mass is such a manifold move.

The fact you did it just "to make it look better" is just the cherry on top.

Manifold truly does not understand its own product.

@Robincvgr I prefer the shorter, more declarative titles because of how it improves the readability of the homepage by removing extraneous phrases. I think for any one creator, they'll prefer their 'will...' partially because it's the platform's culture (99% of other questions are phrased like this), but also because from the perspective of their own market: a few extra words doesn't matter. From the perspective of curating the homepage, however, having 30% less words that serve little purpose would be a win in readability. I changed those two market titles because they were trending on the homepage, thus did it to improve the readability of the homepage without changing the meaning of the questions.

I wonder how you would feel if we started manifold with a culture of declarative titles and then were posed this question of declarative vs interrogative.

@ian why not just have a display slug version then, instead of changing the ugc

the shorter ai generated one can display in some places but not the full market page or explore page (and some other pages)

@strutheo Sure, that could make sense. It does make things more difficult for users though: they have two titles to manage now. And if it's just ai-generated, then what if it gets it wrong? The user still has to manage it

bought αΉ€200 NO

@ian I see y'all continue to think you universally know better than your users, it'll work out this time I'm sure

@CodeandSolder That's not true? I created a market to ask how people would feel if we reworded their titles. I reworded 2 on the front page because readability on the homepage is important and this was before I knew that people felt so strongly about keeping the 'will x do y' in their titles.

@ian readability isn't objective. Removing words can make readability worse for some people. What you're talking about here isn't readability, it's your aesthetic preferences

(Which is fair enough! You're entitled to your aesthetic preferences!)

@Fion I think declarative titles are wining the market test:

@ian I'm not sure of the timeline, did you change user generated titles before getting the (overwhelmingly negative) results on that poll or after? Because neither case disproves what I said. Not being able to predict that people really wouldn't like AI butchering their work at this point seems really odd, as that's very much in line with prior events

@ian Also, do you really think it's about people caring about the format itself and not about their work being made objectively worse by somebody putting it into the Unpaid Intern Machine with zero context, without asking?

@CodeandSolder Do you think I'm lying? These are the voted ordered by created time, id of S8 = fine with it. The initial votes were split, with fine with it slightly favored

@ian like I said I wasn't sure on the timeline, so, given that, you were OK with angering half your userbase for a marginal gain?

@CodeandSolder Sorry, how does changing two titles = angering half the userbase?

@ian make half your userbase "feel not okay", to stick with the wording of the poll, and that's without them knowing it would be made by GPT with zero context apart from the title

@ian I think the main issue here is not whether the title is better, but the fact that you’re changing people’s markets without asking or even notifying them.

@bagelfan Yeah this is the biggest issue.

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Terms + Mana-only Termsβ€’Privacyβ€’Rules