I started a companion poll measuring direct community sentiment about Manifold. Unlike this market, it measures opinions through votes rather than trading, so I'm curious how the two compare over time. It also makes it straightforward to compute statistics such as the mean and standard deviation of community sentiment. Feel free to vote and leave comments: /GilearFaeth/overall-how-happy-are-you-with-mani

Current results: mean = 61.7%, SD = 20.8%, n = 12, compared with the current Leadership Approval Rating of ~45%. It'll be interesting to see whether that gap grows, stays the same, or shrinks as more responses come in.

@GilearFaeth unfortunately any poll is a drifting snapshot! can't change your vote later

@Stralor That's true. My plan is to run these more than just once, maybe monthly, so each poll is a snapshot of sentiment at that point in time, so people can vote differently on the next one, and so on.

@GilearFaeth Maybe we could work something like this into a more regular in-built thing, and then build a perp market on top? (seems easy to manipulate, but, could be cool?)

Nonetheless, I appreciate you creating those polls, and we always appreciate participation in this market. I have been thinking for a while now that I should create another, "How can Manifold improve" type post, but it feels as though there is infinite work ahead of me already, and so it unfortunately gets delayed. Maybe soon (lol!)

edit: I need a "see results" option tho, lol

@Gen Both fine for me. One advantage of built-in is reaching a broader more representative audience than I can, unless someone boosts my poll, which is probably a waste of mana. 😆 I'll try to remember to add "see results" next time. This time, I opted for multi-select, so if someone wants to vote 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, or 90%, they can pick two adjacent options.

@GilearFaeth see prior attempts:

🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q1 2024? [Poll Index]61%‌

🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q2 2024? [Poll Index]42%‌

🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q3 2024? [Poll Index]49%‌

🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q4 2024? [Poll Index]62%‌

@strutheo I think this deserves an annotation https://manifold.markets/post/announcing-prize-drawings

@strutheo it is more about Mana purchases are moving to crypto + New signups will have ID verification than prizes IMO

Buying NO - Diamond Leagues promotion is all out of whack

@strutheo Add MNX launch?

Very nice update and also gg for getting rid of the loan and putting the dashboard there!

charity is back

@strutheo it is interesting but just encouraging people to burn mana for counterfactually ~0 effect. I am not spending a single mana on that.

Should be much lower but I can’t afford to bet it down

@Jack1 why

also is this what you were asking for a loan for...

@Bayesian Announcing awful changes without thought. Like a balance cap on loans which would ruin limit orders. (Reversed) . Stupid 20% a year loan idea. Not fixing mana being lost when liquidity applied. Allowing cheats to worsen the site for months. Not allowing liquidity removal on multi choice markets.

@Bayesian no, I only just saw this market. That loan would be for investing in ranked markets and making sure I have mana to repay other loans.

predictle game added

DMs ARE BACK, MANIFOLD IS BACK

@strutheo can we put in the nuke of DM's to the notes

@strutheo we’re keeping you hot, I think you might have to add them putting DM’s back

RIP DMs

I guess they changed their minds

Its been longer without sweepstakes than with sweepstakes

@strutheo we're about due another pivot