How many dollars of mana will be sold May 16th - 19th?
resolved May 21
$2,000 - $5,000
$5,000 - $10,000

Manifold has just changed the purchase rate, giving users 10x more mana per dollar.

How much mana will we sell this weekend? I'll look at the sum of sales in USD for the 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th on our stats page.

Update: Stats page isn't working properly, so I will calculate the true numbers.

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Warning to everyone trading: There is a chance the stats page displays a number over $10,000 for today, next time it updates, but this number may be 10x the amount actually sold. Don't instantly put all your mana on the $10,000+ option unless you're sure you know how it is working.

@Eliza is there a plan to fix the mana sales graph ? Maybe change it into a dollars spent graph that seems more useful.

@Eliza Based on this post we're now at:
May 16, 2670
May 17, 2380
May 18, 250

So the 5k threshold has been squarely surpassed.

I don't think it's as easy to fix as that quick 10x or etc. According to the Discord bot, it's still under 5k. No idea if that's reliable, but I wouldn't bet too strongly on the displayed #s so far either, AFAIK they aren't accurate.

bought Ṁ1,500 $2,000 - $5,000 NO

@Ziddletwix This is the most recent post about the values and it comes from a mod. If it's not accurate, the market should be N/Aed.

@Panfilo well the market is run by staff, & the mod in question didn't say exactly the conversion worked, just "Don't instantly put all your mana on the $10,000+ option unless you're sure you know how it is working.".

the discord bot only reports ~$4k sold. that could definitely be inaccurate, so my bets might be off, but SG said the intent of this market was to go off the actual result not what's erroneously displayed on the stats page (and it's absolutely confusing that there's an incorrect stat page, agreed!)

sold Ṁ186 $10,000+ YES

@Ziddletwix She... did say an exact conversion rate though. 10x. If it's actually 100x, that's completely bogus.

@Panfilo I was not commenting with my mod costume on, but they don't let you take the thing off so there was no way for you to know that.

All I was saying was, don't trust the stats page. Because one trader had already put their entire life savings on an option based on the stats page in a way that was not quite correct. You still should not trust it to reflect the true amount sold at this time, but some users in this thread have managed to figure out more reliable ways of finding this information.

@Eliza This sounds like a pretty obvious N/A especially coming from staff, which I understand now you were not representing, but nevertheless. Multiple high stakes misunderstandings around criteria reliability, requiring adding up the discord bot entries by hand I guess? And that update to the description came after one guy went all in? And then there were authoritative-sounding comments I based my bet on?

@Panfilo Not sure what else you want. I immediately called it out when I saw it. Should I have just said nothing?

@Panfilo Okay, I think I finally at least see why you were upset with me, based on this post:

Based on this post we're now at:
May 16, 2670
May 17, 2380
May 18, 250

So the 5k threshold has been squarely surpassed.

In this, you wrote that May 16 was $2670, but I never said that. In fact, I said the exact opposite. I said that it was NOT $2670 on the first day:

The page is lying, only 267,000 mana were sold on the 16th, which is only $267, not $2670 as it currently displays.

(And, again, that was not as a moderator, but someone trying to figure out how to bet on the market.)

@Eliza I don’t blame you as an individual for me not grocking that this four day period had two different back to back errors on its original resolution page. It would have probably been worse if no attempt to correct SG was made. It just makes the market a clusterfuck!


Time to see how many people donated $100 of mana last month to buy $100 of mana today and x10 their holdings!

Pat Scott🩴boughtṀ5,000<$2000 NO

@Stralor The page is lying, only 267,000 mana were sold on the 16th, which is only $267, not $2670 as it currently displays.

@Eliza Follow-up due to the weird total not being divisible by 5,000: looks like SG tested twice to buy just 1,000 mana before anyone bought 10,000, so it's hard to say if those were $10 each at the old rate or $1 each at the new rate. But it looks clear based on balances and txns that the amount sold is much less than the currently-displayed $2670 for that date.

@Eliza @SG could you confirm that you won't be going off the currently listed amount for may 16th? from glancing at the discord bot, it looks like the amount purchased is more like ~$1200. should we expect that the total will be updated on the stats page, or will you go based on the correct internal amount, or is this market in part about whether the displayed # will be corrected soon?

@Ziddletwix (I know it's up to >$2000 now regardless because of a later big purchase but I'm curious about how the final total will be handled, given that you're trading as well)

@Ziddletwix I'm not sure what's causing the discrepancy. We'll try to make the numbers on the stats page more accurate. If not, I'll do my best to choose the actually correct amount if the stats page is very far from the true numbers.


After reviewing the situation on the 15th more closely, it seems the $267 figure was also wrong. Here is what seems to have happened:

- The pivot was launched with 10x mana advertised, but not hooked up to giving out the correct amount of mana
- There were 3 or 4 transactions that happened that gave the wrong amount of mana (1x instead of 10x), this included one user who paid $1000 but only got 100,000 mana instead of 1 million mana
- Then that error was fixed and the rest of the transactions gave the correct amount of mana

The user who bought 1 million mana but only received 100k, was given an extra 900k mana later in the day.

Based on that, the figures by @Ziddletwix of $1175-$1200 range for 15 May seem to be the most correct anyone has delivered so far.

I normally don’t think it’s so crazy to N/A a question that causes some confusion but I do think it’d be a bit odd here when (1) the description was updated back on the 17th to explicitly clarify that the displayed stats page would not be the basis for the market and should be ignored (before the surge of betting) and (2) N/A Is now supposed to be a tool of absolute last resort avoided when possible and it’d be odd to N/A one of the first staff markets created after that change.

sold Ṁ4 <$2000 YES

@Ziddletwix I'm up but I vote NA. I bought because of confident statements made about the stats.