Will Manifold raise a community round by the end of 2024?
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2025
22%
chance

Resolves to YES if Manifold initiates a community round by the end of 2024.

Resolves to NO **early** if manifold winds down, is acquired, or IPOs before the closing date, without raising a community round.

Defining Community Round

  • "A campaign seeking to raise capital in exchange for equity, which is open to any of the following: community members, early adopters, the general public."
    For example, campaigns posted to platforms like WeFunder or Republic, or a CIO all count as YES.

  • Accredited-investor-only opportunities (e.g., AngelList, Republic's "DealRoom") do not count towards a YES resolution.

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boughtṀ100YES

@SG Is this in reference to the small "round" announced on Discord or.. ?

AngelList counts?

@MartinRandall Should it?

I'm on the fence about including "accredited investor only" deals.
Does not really fit the spirit of a community round.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@jgyou I figured accredited-investor-only wouldn't count based on your description.

@jgyou thanks for updating the description.