What will Trump's polling lead over Joe Biden on RCP be on April 1st 2024?
48
339
2K
resolved Apr 1
100%87%
0.6-1%
1.1%
0.1-0.5%
5%
1.1-1.5%
4%
1.6-2%
0.8%
2.1-3%
0.8%
>3%
1.3%
Trump won't be leading
0.2%
Other (Trump or Biden will have dropped out)

Trump's current lead is 1.9 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Resolved based on RCPs average spread on 1st April 0900h EST

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since you all loved this so much i've created a new duplicate market for May here - https://manifold.markets/diadematus/what-will-trumps-polling-lead-over-23248ac7e834

Trump +1% at 0900 EST

bought Ṁ250 1.1-1.5% YES

this suddenly got quite interesting

bought Ṁ90 1.6-2% YES

@diadematus Ooooo so it did

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