Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
May 2

A gaffe would be Biden misspeaking in a way that generated negative news coverage.

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What counts as a press conference @DismalScientist? For the purposes of figuring out which is the "next" one after market creation?

@chrisjbillington I am going to use the definition of news conference from UCSB's American Presidency Project "The term "news conference" refers simply to an interaction between the President and multiple members of the press in a relatively formal setting.  In a "news conference," the President and the press meet specifically for the President to respond to press questions." The APP records any presidential press/news conferences ~monthly I think so if something is ambiguous, I will wait until they make a determination to resolve the market. (Note they also keep track of "Exchanges with Reporters" which I will not count as news/press conferences).

There are some "news" organizations that would spin ANYTHING he does as a gaffe, tbh. What's your criteria?

@PaintspotInfez I am open to other opinions on the resolution criteria, but my inclination is that I would count negative coverage of a gaffe as long as Biden legitimately misspoke (so it is not a complete media creation).

@DismalScientist So if he starts a sentence and then re-starts it after a stutter, and TruePatriotNews dot RU covers the moment, this market will resolve Yes?

@Panfilo I don't think I would count this. I think it would have to be him unintentionally speaking in a way where it is plausible that it hurts him with voters. I don't think it is plausible that small stutter would hurt him with voters. I do think that freezing up like Mitch McConnell did could hurt him with voters.

Just to give you a sense of how I am thinking about gaffes, I had a similar market for the state of the union and resolved yes because he said "illegal" and mispronounced Laken Riley. I think of these as relatively small gaffes but large enough that they did count.