Will Biden pass Trump in these swing states for any time before May 1st? (RCP)
32
162
2.1K
May 1
25%
Michigan
14%
Georgia
12%
Arizona
7%
North Carolina
Resolved
YES
Pennsylvania

This market resolves based on the RCP state-level polling averages for the 2-way race between Biden and Trump.

As of market creation on March 28th, the averages for the states listed are updated through March 26th and all show Trump in the lead.

If Biden is shown in the lead at any point in a state's polling average from March 26th to April 30th, that state resolves Yes. Otherwise, all remaining states resolve No after the graph is updated for April 30th.

As of market creation, these are the averages:

  • Pennsylvania - Trump +0.2 (Biden last lead March 11th)

  • Michigan - Trump +3.5 (Biden last lead October 3rd)

  • Arizona - Trump +5.2 (Biden has not lead since average began)

  • Georgia - Trump +5.2 (Biden has not lead since average began)

  • North Carolina - Trump +4.4 (Biden has not lead since average began)


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Pennsylvania
bought Ṁ4,000 Pennsylvania YES

@Joshua / @ManifoldPolitics Pennsylvania resolves YES 🥳

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