What will Trump's polling lead over Joe Biden on RCP be on May 1st 2024?
24
158
1.1K
May 1
39%
0.1-0.5%
14%
0.6-1%
4%
1.1-1.5%
1.3%
1.6-2%
0.7%
2.1-3%
0.5%
>3%
40%
Trump won't be leading
0.4%
Other (Trump or Biden will have dropped out)

Trump's current (1st April) lead is 1.0 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Resolved based on RCPs average spread on 1st May 0900h EST

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bought Ṁ10 >3% NO

@diadematus Did I fall for an April Fools joke somehow? I'm still in the dark if so.

@HarrisonNathan no, just misunderstood your bet...i think the odds of either candidate dropping out are effectively zero (thought you had bet 60 mana on YES)

sold Ṁ10 >3% NO

@diadematus I bet NO on them dropping out.

@HarrisonNathan yes, i see. my bad

@diadematus I wouldn't bet that much lower though - certainly not "effectively zero" - as they are both very old men.

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