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Trump's current (1st April) lead is 1.0 points.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Resolved based on RCPs average spread on 1st May 0900h EST
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resolving ~45 mins early cause i need to go on a run. doubt anything will change in the meantime. if you enjoyed this market you can bet on the June one here - https://manifold.markets/diadematus/what-will-trumps-polling-lead-over-24633a2f320b
@diadematus I think it's a simple average of all the polls they choose to include. I still haven't figured out any rhyme or reason for when old polls drop off.
@diadematus Did I fall for an April Fools joke somehow? I'm still in the dark if so.
@HarrisonNathan no, just misunderstood your bet...i think the odds of either candidate dropping out are effectively zero (thought you had bet 60 mana on YES)
@diadematus I wouldn't bet that much lower though - certainly not "effectively zero" - as they are both very old men.