resolving ~45 mins early cause i need to go on a run. doubt anything will change in the meantime. if you enjoyed this market you can bet on the June one here - https://manifold.markets/diadematus/what-will-trumps-polling-lead-over-24633a2f320b

does RCP use a rolling average? yesterday it was at Trump +1.4, then got 2 polls at a tie and Biden +2 and suddenly moved to Trump +1.5?

@diadematus I think it's a simple average of all the polls they choose to include. I still haven't figured out any rhyme or reason for when old polls drop off.

@HarrisonNathan lol?

@diadematus Did I fall for an April Fools joke somehow? I'm still in the dark if so.

@HarrisonNathan no, just misunderstood your bet...i think the odds of either candidate dropping out are effectively zero (thought you had bet 60 mana on YES)

@diadematus I bet NO on them dropping out.

@HarrisonNathan yes, i see. my bad

@diadematus I wouldn't bet that much lower though - certainly not "effectively zero" - as they are both very old men.