So, uh. Will Tumbles owe Ṁ1,000,000 by Christmas?

Basic

Ṁ120k

resolved Apr 23

Resolved

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You can see how much Tumbles currently owes here

Resolves YES if at any time the total amount Tumbles owes to other users totals at least 1,000,000 mana. This includes fees and interest. This does not include the daily loans Manifold automatically gives out to every user.

Resolve NO at the market's scheduled close date. Note it includes Christmas day.

Have spare mana? Loan it to me! I'll pay you a nice juicy fee as a thank you xoxo

Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex!

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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How does this work with your recent 1.4 m loan from manifold?

@Tumbles

yeah hm

I mean I just assumed being granted a loan from Manifold wouldn't count. It's not "owed to other users" as the description says.

I've got a pretty massive reason to be biased but that was my intention and I think the description reflects that, although I didn't have this edge case in mind when I wrote it lol

Technically manifold is a user of this site. Sure it's a company behind the account but I think there is a pretty strong argument this resolves yes

bought Ṁ2,000 NO

Resolving NO since I am no longer able to take on more p2p loans, since they are being banned on the website. Admins have indicated they will grandfather in my pre-existing loans.

@Tumbles I really do understand why you resolved this now - these changes are bullshit.

Nevertheless, it does not seem fair to resolve so early - you say explicitly this resolves no at the markets scheduled close date. I factored in your investments here and the delayed gains while betting in other TFS markets. It is not fair to me (who has acted in good faith with you) to resolve this early.

Further, the administration are clearly quite fickle. There is a real chance they bring back p2p loans in some form in the next 8 months.

@RobertCousineau in that case he can re-resolve, I suppose

@RobertCousineau I kinda see where you're coming from, but it's not like it was ever going to resolve YES at this point. With 102k on NO I was fully committed to not choosing to trigger this market. My debt is already under 500k.

I have always been a fan of early resolutions in general. However, this resolution does benefit me, so if mods say it should stay open I won't be upset or argue.

@Tumbles your 102k on No makes resolving this 8 months early all the more impactful to my bets on your "will I ever default" market.

"Get your mana tied up in markets you can't back out of due to a lack of counterparties" is one of my tactics.

I would appreciate if you invested the time to have a conversation with mods about re-resolving, given you were the one who decided to resolve 8 months before the agreed upon date.

@RobertCousineau I'll have a talk with Joshua about it

@RobertCousineau I've pinged Joshua and SirSalty about it and so far they don't seem to care. I'm currently inclined to stick with this resolution, but I won't be at all offended if you ask a mod about it yourself

@Tumbles I guess the biggest thing is that there was a strong expectation it would close EOY and traders could potentially offload shares to save a couple %.

Also Manifold is one of those sites where who knows what could change. I think it is very unlikely we will allow p2p loans again but it's not 100%. Don't think there is really much harm to leave it open, but there could be some from resolving it early.