Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

386

2kṀ2.2m

resolved Jun 9

Resolved

YES

ALL

Manifold announces end to daily loans

+64%

[image]Ladies and gentleman, I’m afraid it’s looking pretty joever. My balance is -731k. Once the loan markets resolve, counting my outstanding loans, I’ll be almost three million mana in the red. It’s been an honour meming with you all. To my investors/creditors, I’m sorry it ends this way. This was always going to end in either glory or disaster, and unfortunately it came to disaster. I’ll make a mini final report once the dust settles and markets finish resolving.

+88%

[image]

-54.0%

I hope you're happy America

+30%

@Tumbles I think I might actually make it 😆

-31.0%

Yesterday I lost almost 100k mana, Donald Trump was inaugurated and immediately began acting as expected, my streamer man got credibly accused of sex crimes, and my bamboo shrimp died. WHAT A FUCKED UP DAY [image][image](Photos are off the shrimp's widow, he was at least twice as big)

+10%

[image]This week only, I am offering to DOUBLE YOUR MANA! You read that correctly! Here at the Tumbles Financial Complex for a limited time only we are DOUBLING YOUR MANA! Simply send any amount of mana between 1k and 50k, and in just two months we will send you back DOUBLE THAT MANA DOUBLE YOUR MANA

+47%

[image]Overnight profit spike estimation in the case of a Conservative election win has now surpassed two million mana (estimation assumes my loan market drops to 5%)

+8%

[image][image]uh ohge

+15%

The Tumbles Financial Complex thanks you for making use of your services! We hope you have a fantastic day!

+15%

[image]I've sold my NO shares to @cthor, who has been making big plays in the background along with a shadowy cabal of debt manipulators. I've seen some of their plans... I know not if they be borne of genius or madness [image]As for myself, I must admit I find myself daunted by the state of my account. Even if I use an alt to avoid my negative balance, it's very unlikely I'm going to find a way to cough up Ṁ1,852,199. Perhaps I'll buy a lottery ticket tomorrow Apologies to everyone who find themselves left holding the bag. I tried! Y'know, it's possible I may have been an unexceptional future predictor all along 🤔 the possibility of spectacular failure has always been a part of what made all of this fun, and unfortunately spectacular failure has come to pass. I will continue honoring my debts to whatever extent is possible. I will put any mana I can get my hands on into paying my creditors. Thank you to everyone who participated up until now! You enabled this to be a pretty cool thing for me for a long time now, hopefully the feeling is mutual for many of you. I think we got pretty damn close to glory, considering how consistently wrong I've been for like two years now. I'm not necessarily going anywhere! I just predict my habits on the site will be impacted by the fact my account is now a six million mana crater. Love you all 🧡 🧡 🧡 Orangey sends his regards [image]

-10.0%

SEMIOTIC RIVALRY HAS BET ONE MILLION MANA AGAINST ME THAT I WILL NOT WIN POKER AT MANIFEST 2025 https://manifold.markets/BrendanFinan/who-will-win-poker-at-manifest-2024-QNyAgctZAR?r=T3JhbmdleQ

Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.

@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.

I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).

(short term loans not listed, nor included in running totals)

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @RomanHauksson
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ169,000 @cthor

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @copiumarc

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @Bayesian

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ30,000 @TheWabiSabi

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ80,000 @Gen

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ6,000 @Vortex

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @jcb

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ84,138 @Quillist

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @A

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,674 @Robincvgr

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ3,392 @mana

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @JeffreyDeLucca

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @TheSchwa

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @Mh

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @sophiawisdom

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @copiumarc

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @BlackCrusade

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @khang2009

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @atmidnight

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @bence

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @draaglom

June 10th 2025 - Ṁ2,002 @crowlsyong

June 11th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @kopecs

June 11th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @copiumarc

June 11th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @TheWabiSabi

June 11th 2025 - Ṁ2,690 @CryptoNeoLiberalist

June 12th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @ONEMILLION
June 15th 2025 - Ṁ100,000 @Tripping

July 31st 2025 - Ṁ33,000 @TheWabiSabi

July 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,800 @AndrewG
August 2nd 2025 - Ṁ16,500 @ScipioFabius

August 7th 2025 - Ṁ24,000 @CryptoNeoLiberalist
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ79,000 @Joshua
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ39,000 @EBurk
October 31st 2025 Ṁ70,000 @SemioticRivalry
October 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,000 @Vortex
October 31st 2025 - Ṁ70,000 @DrDerek
Jan 7th 2026 - Ṁ269,000 @AmmonLam

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ69,696 @GazDownright

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,804 @Robincvgr

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @TheWabiSabi

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ30,000 @EBurk

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,414 @crowlsyong

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ14,070 @cthor

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ15,000 @copiumarc

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @zsig

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ44,000 @StopPunting

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ5,200 @ahalekelly

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @robert

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ10,176 @mana

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ10,140 @NivlacM

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @GastonKessler
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @A
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ60,000 @Simon74fe

April 30th 2026 - Ṁ151,500 @SanghyeonSeo

May 7th 2026 - Ṁ15,001 @Mana

Total: 1,819,197

Debts paid off or cleared after Manifest 2025: Ṁ68,002
Debts paid off or cleared after 2025 Canadian Election and before Manifest 2025: Ṁ141,349
Debts paid off or cleared after Biden dropped out and before 2025 Canadian Election: Ṁ981,800
Total debts previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: Ṁ711,679

Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸