The Total Bag - What will Tumbles owe when he first is late to pay back a loan?
9
1.4kṀ607
2040
13%
0 - All Loans Successfully Paid Off
2%
1-250,000
2%
250,001-500,000
2%
500,001-750,000
2%
750,001-1,000,000
4%
1,000,001-1,250,000
9%
1,250,001-1,500,000
37%
1,500,001-1,750,000
16%
1,750,001-2,000,000
3%
2,000,001-2,250,000
2%
2,250,001-2,500,000
2%
2,500,000-2,750,000
2%
2,750,001-3,000,000
2%
3,000,000+

Sitting at -$5 Million Mana, Tumbles has all but admitted defeat in personally paying back all his creditors, represented by the (as of writing) 86% probability estimated that he will be late paying back a loan. Despite this, there is a thriving secondary market for "Tumbles' Debt" (and good faith efforts by Tumbles to do what he can to avoid defaulting on loans), implying that there is some belief that somehow Manifold will find a way to maintain the Tumbles Financial Complex as long as it can.

At market creation, Tumbles owes 1,850,199 mana.

Resolves to the overall balance the first date when Tumbles is first late on a loan, regardless if the loan is later paid.

Related:

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Loans
Finance
Tumbles Financial Complex
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Assuming Tumbles doesn't take on any more debt, anyone holding more than Ṁ100,200 of it can force this to be NO by forgiving their debt right before the default happens.

It might be more interesting if this market doesn't subtract from the total any loans forgiven less than 24 hours before the default.

Sure, but you could counter-play it by delaying announcing renegotiation (I guess that only works if there is only 1 or 2 debts that will default on a delay) so you just get a bunch of people to forgive their loans for nothing haha

Oho, that's clever

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