How much debt will @Tumbles have at the end of 2024?
➕
Plus
30
Ṁ26k
resolved Jan 1
100%84%
Ṁ1,600,000
0.1%
Ṁ100,000
0.1%
Ṁ200,000
0.2%
Ṁ300,000
0.5%
Ṁ400,000
0.2%
Ṁ500,000
0.1%
Ṁ600,000
0.0%
Ṁ700,000
0.0%
Ṁ800,000
0.0%
Ṁ900,000
0.0%
Ṁ1,000,000
0.1%
Ṁ1,100,000
0.1%
Ṁ1,200,000
0.1%
Ṁ1,300,000
0.2%
Ṁ1,400,000
1.8%
Ṁ1,500,000
4%
Ṁ1,700,000
8%Other

Resolves to the nearest Ṁ100,000.

New multiples of 100k will be split of off other if it seems like Tumbles is borrowing more.

Unless someone calculates a better estimate with proof, I will use Tumble's self reported amount in

/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

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5mo

Alright, all debt except for having a negative balance and the legacy loans will be included. So the 1.4mil mana counts as debt.

7d

Ṁ219,500 + Ṁ1,400,000 = Ṁ1,619,500. If you have a more accurate calculate please provide it in the comments and ping me.

5mo

Alright, all debt except for having a negative balance and the legacy loans will be included. So the 1.4mil mana counts as debt.

5mo

@Tumbles down to 293k, congrats!

5mo

+1.4mil to Manifold lol

@SavioMak it would be good to clarify if that loan counts for this market

5mo

Won't count debt against Manifold btw, only p2p loans

Does this count as a p2p loan or debt to Manifold?

5mo

@Arky That's awkward because my intention is to ignore negative balance and the legacy loans (since Tumbles is also not counting those in his market). It will count for the purpose of this market. See my pinned comment for clarification.

sold Ṁ9 YES8mo

p2p loans are being banned, with existing debts being grandfathered in, so this will resolve to 300,000 or less

8mo

@Tumbles unless they revert it

@SavioMak That's true. Currently I still think my loan taking days would be over even if managrams come back, but I wouldn't say that for sure. The pivot has super nerfed my trading strats, which means I can't make as much with loans, which means I can't offer very good rates, which means people will prefer to just hold onto their mana, especially since it's worth actual money now. A lot could change though between now and the end of the year

bought Ṁ10 YES10mo

currently just shy of M$785k, and I don't see the debt getting much lower (unless Tumbles goes bankrupt)

10mo

update: now up to M$818k

9mo

@duck_master because this is only about debt at EOY 2024, you should only add the loans that are due 2025 onwards, and it is ~300k right now

bought Ṁ10 NO11mo
bought Ṁ20 NO11mo

@Tumbles I didn't want to touch your topic

@Tumbles If you want to see how previous markets similar to this went, follow the chain of links in the comments starting with this market:

/Tumbles/ok-this-is-just-getting-silly-now-w

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